Is Labour preparing to water down its tax plans for 'non-doms'?
Making sense of the latest trends in property and economics from around the globe
4 minutes to read
The Labour Party's attitudes to private wealth tend to ebb and flow over time.
In 1998, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Mandelson said the party was 'intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich,' albeit with the often-forgotten caveat, 'as long as they pay their taxes.' Two decades later, party leader Jeremy Corbyn declared that neither billionaires nor poverty would exist in a fair society. Where does this administration stand?
We posed this question to experts in The Wealth Report 2024 (P.21). This was before the election, and we were told to expect pragmatism: "In an ideal world they would want to tax more, particularly the rich, but they’re smart enough to know that would cost them the election," James McBride, a veteran of the Labour Party Policy Unit told us. "Despite the instinctive politics, the world is a complicated place."
McBride now runs the political consultancy ForeFront Partners. Any overreach regarding non-doms in-particular risked "shooting themselves in the foot for political gain with very little in the form of economic benefit,” he added.
Pragmatic, not ideological
It was surprising, then, to see a set of proposals that economists believed were so extensive that they could cost the taxpayer money. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has a few options, from reforming how foreign income gains are treated to a more thorough overhaul that includes inheritance tax.
Oxford Economics research commissioned by Foreign Investors for Britain suggested the former option would prompt the population of non-doms to drop by 7% and would raise about £1.1 billion in 2029/30. The latter scenario sees the population of non-doms fall by almost a third, costing the taxpayer almost £1 billion.
The party seems ready to water down the proposals "amid Treasury fears that some of the measures may fail to raise any money," the FT reported yesterday. “We are looking at the details of our proposals,” one government official told the paper. “We will be pragmatic, not ideological. We won’t press on regardless, but we are not going to abandon this completely.”
These signals will travel beyond the relatively small population of non-doms. Following a period of post-Brexit uncertainty, the capital’s reputation as Europe’s dominant hub for wealth and finance is looking more secure, but high-net-worth individuals have never had so many viable options. A pragmatic Budget would settle a few nerves and make a broader statement about what global investors can expect from this government for the next five years, and perhaps beyond.
The DNA of UK cities
The UK's position as a growth laggard among Western rivals is shifting quickly. OECD forecasts published this week placed the UK growth rate close to most other G7 nations this year and next, though still behind the US. The forecast suggests the economy will expand 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, up from previous estimates of 0.4% and 1.0%
Interestingly, the OECD said the UK's self-imposed borrowing targets need revisiting, and this morning's Times reports that Reeves has asked the Treasury to look at changing the rules in a manner that would free up as much as £50 billion to spend on roads, housing, energy and other large scale projects.
Global investors look increasingly favourably on the UK: these upgrades come as other major economies falter. The stable political transition contrasts with ongoing uncertainty and flux in large democracies worldwide. Knight Frank is charting these changes and their resulting impact on commercial real estate across UK cities in a new set of insight papers - you can read the first here.
Victoria Ormond published the second this week, outlining how the UK is currently well-positioned to benefit from growth in several dynamic sectors, such as technology, life sciences, and green energy. These sectors are not only expanding but also driving demand for specialised real estate, from office spaces tailored for tech companies to laboratories and manufacturing facilities for life sciences. Additionally, the new UK government’s stated focus on infrastructure development and productivity improvements creates opportunities for investors in commercial real estate, Victoria writes. See the report for more.
The UK wine boom
Yesterday afternoon, wine connoisseurs gathered for the opening of Taittinger's latest winery. It was an opening with a difference: the world-famous producer of sparkling wines has swapped the undulating hills of Champagne for Chilham, in Kent. You can read the full Times report here.
UK wine is booming. The area of the UK planted to vines has surged by around 75% over the past five years to almost 10,000 acres. Annual production has also ramped up by a staggering 130% to over 12 million bottles. There are now around 950 vineyards across the country.
Many of the smaller vineyards in England are owned by successful professionals who have now left The City wanting a new venture for their passions. Given that certain segments of the English wine sector are abundantly supplied, running a profitable business rather than a hobby requires an informed decision about what grape varieties you want to grow and how you plan to market your wine. But fear not - Ed and Will from Knight Frank's specialist viticulture team - have the answers.
In other news...
Chinese stocks on track for best week since 2008 after stimulus blitz (FT).