A sober 2025 for global prime housing markets
This year, many prime housing markets returned to growth after prices retreated in 2023. With rates on their way down, albeit slowly, the outlook for 2025 anticipates further growth, led by Dubai, New York, Geneva, and Paris. However, with affordability still tight and inventory levels rising, several key markets are facing a standstill in prices, with one or two at risk of a decline.
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Dubai, +5%
With limited luxury supply and a rapidly growing population, Dubai’s prime real estate market will see positive growth in 2025. Listings in prime neighbourhoods have fallen by 52% over the past 12 months. The shortage is even more pronounced in the US$10 million+ segment, where available properties have dropped by 65%.
New York, +3%
Following five years of sub-par growth, prime New York has regained its confidence, and a truly positive market expansion—absent since 2019—is set to return in 2025. Inventory levels remain sharply below the five-year average (-54%), which will help support pricing as the selling season gathers pace in the spring.
Geneva, +3%
Geneva’s 3% growth forecast reflects its continued status as a safe haven for global elites. With a strong currency, low taxes, and an excellent quality of life, the city remains a favourite among UHNWIs. A planned income tax cut in 2025 in the Canton of Geneva will further bolster its appeal.
Paris, +2.5%
Despite political instability, Paris is drawing increasing interest from UK and US buyers, driven by a weak euro. Buyers are eager to move forward, having put their plans on hold for several years, following the 2024 Olympics and France’s general election.
London, +2%
We expect a slower recovery in the short term as the non dom tax status ends and stamp duty for second homes is hiked. However, the relative value since the last peak, greater political certainty, a high presence of cash buyers, and rising levels of global wealth mean we expect price growth to strengthen over the next five years.
Sydney, +1%
Price growth is likely to further moderate in 2025. Slower activity will be incited by a federal election, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and any reduction to interest rates unlikely until the second half of the year. Although underlying this, the stock market is buoyant, properties remain tightly held, and there is still depth in cash buyers seeking downsized homes.
Miami, 0%
After experiencing substantial growth—prices rose by 84% over the past five years—the prime Miami market is set to relax in 2025. Annual growth slowed to 3.8% at the end of 2024, and we anticipate this slowing trend continuing into next year. With listing volumes up 36% over the last 12 months, market power is shifting from sellers to buyers. That said, anyone who purchased only a few years ago and is now selling will still have done very well.
Hong Kong, 0%
With the relaxation of the New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme to cover the residential sector, we expect the residential market of over HK$50 million to be more active. While mortgage rates remain at a relatively high level compared with the rental yield, its scarcity in supply and attractive pricing will entice potential investors to re-enter the market.
Singapore, 0%
2025 will see buyers grow in confidence as rates fall. However, exuberance will be held in check by the prevailing Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates for both local and foreign homebuyers, especially for investors not purchasing for owner-occupation. As such, price movement is expected to be relatively flat in 2025.
Los Angeles (Beverly Hills and adjacent areas), -2%
Prices rose by 52% in prime LA over the past five years, and after a final flurry of growth in late 2023 and early 2024, price growth is slowing as inventory levels increase. While prices are likely to be down overall, expect some record sales for truly best-in-class properties; some buyers will still pay to access unique opportunities.