The Rural Update: Help shape Land Use Framework
Your weekly dose of news, views and insight from Knight Frank on the world of farming, food and landownership
8 minutes to read
Viewpoint
The government’s new “national conversation”, discussed below, on how the English countryside should be used has already sparked a few choice comments on social media, mainly from people convinced that most of our farmland will soon be covered with houses and solar panels.
It’s true that the consultation document, which will inform the government’s long-awaited Land Use Framework, does propose that 10% of farmland should switch to non-agricultural uses, but much of this would likely be the restoration of less-productive land to habitats such as peatland and lowland heath.
However, the government says it wants a conversation, so all of those concerned about the proposals should take part in the consultation process, which only runs until 25th April.
In the past, such consultations have largely been dominated by the views of NGOs and individuals passionate about environmental causes. This time, it’s vital that the countryside makes its voice heard.
Commodity markets
Trump tariffs to hit OSR
US President Donald Trump finally pushed the button on a potential trade war on Saturday when he signed an executive order imposing tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico (later apparently postponed) and Canada to be implemented from today (4th February), plus a 10% levy on Chinese goods. The move could be bearish for oilseed rape (OSR) prices as it may force more Canadian OSR (canola) onto European markets. OSR prices were already sliding last week with limited demand from processors.
Tariffs unnerve oil markets
Crude oil markets have started the week in a jittery mood following the aforementioned implementation of tariffs – Canada and Mexico are two of the US’s largest oil suppliers. President Trump’s move has heightened supply concerns, with the benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude markets nudging up slightly on Monday morning. However, broader fundamentals, such as ample US stocks and Trump’s calls for OPEC to reduce prices, continue to weigh on markets.
Beef bonanza
Anybody shopping for the Sunday roast can’t fail to have noticed the sharp rise in the retail price of beef, and the trend looks set to continue. Prime deadweight cattle prices broke the £6/kg barrier for the first time last week, with the AHDB predicting demand is likely to continue outstripping sliding supply as the year progresses. Values are now 20% higher than this time last year.
The headline
Labour launches land-use conversation
Those awaiting the government’s long-promised Land Use Framework for England will have to hang on for a bit longer. To help inform the shape of the framework, Defra minister Steve Reed last week launched a “national conversation” seeking the views of anybody with an interest in how the countryside should deliver food, homes (1.5 million by the end of this parliament), energy and the government’s ambitious nature restoration and climate-change targets.
Mr Reed said that the land-use strategy, once published later this year, will not be used to tell people what to do with their land. Instead, it will “using the most sophisticated land-use data ever published, provide the principles, advanced data and tools to support decision-making by local government, landowners, businesses, farmers, and nature groups to make the most of our land.”
This, he claimed, would help protect England’s most valuable farmland. “This government has a cast-iron commitment to maintain long-term food production. The primary purpose of farming will always be to produce food that feeds the nation. This framework will give decision-makers the toolkit they need to protect our highest-quality agricultural land.”
However, at the heart of the consultation, which closes on 25 April, lie proposals to change the use of around 20% of England’s farmland by 2050, including taking 760,000 ha out of production permanently. Mr Reed claims the changes will not affect food security because this will be maintained by a boost in productivity.
The proposed land-use changes have been split into a number of categories with estimates of how much of England’s 8.7 million ha of farmland will be required to deliver each of them.
News in brief
New IHT hit rate released
The AHDB is the latest organisation to release an estimate of how many farming businesses will be affected by the government’s controversial changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT), which were announced in the Autumn Budget. The organisation reckons over 75% of the almost 55,000 farms in England and Scotland that are bigger than 50 hectares will be hit by the extra IHT charges due to be levied from April 2026. Meanwhile, farmers are planning another protest in London on 10 February, the same day that MPs are set to debate a 145,000-strong public petition urging a U-turn on the plans.
UK to miss renewable targets
Despite approving a raft of new renewable projects, the Labour government is still set to miss the country’s 2030 clean-energy targets, according to Cornwall Insight. The energy analyst reckons solar PV is set for a 16GW shortfall against its 45GW government target, although notes that this still represents a 70% boost on today’s capacity. Onshore wind will lag 10GW behind its 27GW goal, but offshore wind will fall just 6GW below its 43GW target. Last week, the government announced that it had “unlocked” 13 offshore wind projects that could deliver 16GW of electricity.
Newts not to blame
The Wildlife Trusts has hit back at Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who last week accused bats and newts of holding up new developments and stunting the UK’s productivity as she laid out plans to build more infrastructure, including a third runway at Heathrow, and reform planning rules. In a statement, the environmental NGO said: “More than one million homes granted planning permission since 2015 have not been built, suggesting that unpicking the planning system and weakening environmental regulation will do little to help house building.”
Nature beats tech
A new report by sustainable food-chain investment adviser FAIRR reveals that climate change investors are overlooking more effective nature-based interventions in favour of tech-based solutions when it comes to livestock systems. The report looks at 22 on-farm interventions designed to make agriculture more sustainable and demonstrates that while practices such as cover cropping, crop rotation and tree-planting are the best ways of making a difference, most of what little climate finance is available is flowing into technological solutions like feed additives and anaerobic digesters, which are less effective and can often have undesirable environmental side effects.
Pulse push proposals
Growing more pulses in the UK would be one way to help the livestock sector slash its carbon emissions. Using homegrown pulse-based animal feed to reduce imports of soya bean meal by 20% could cut the agricultural industry’s carbon footprint by 7%, delegates at the recent Soya to Sustainability conference were told. Including legumes in an arable rotation also has the potential to boost soil quality and the yield of subsequent cereal crops.
Eco-lawfare ramps up
As we’ve touched on before in this update, the courts are increasingly being used to shape government policies on the environment and climate change. The latest legal victory by campaign group ClientEarth, on behalf of residents of Italy’s Campania region, establishes that not tackling pollution could be considered a violation of human rights. The ruling was delivered by the European Court of Human Rights and revolved around the long-term failure of local authorities to implement proper waste management systems, resulting in soil, water and air pollution that had affected public health.
Property of the week
Diverse New Forest estate
Landford Lodge, located within the New Forest National Park on the Wiltshire/Hampshire border, offers a wide range of attractions for anybody looking for a diverse yet manageable estate in the south of England. An attractive 12-bedroomed period house provides plenty of accommodation while some of the lighter land on the 259-acre estate is suitable for growing high-value salad crops. There are 55 acres of mature deciduous woodland that support eight to 10 days of shooting per year. There is even a renowned tree nursery with a 3,000-strong customer base (Landford Trees) available for purchase separately. The main lot is guided at £12 million. Please contact Alice Keith for more information.
Property markets
Country houses Q4 2024 – Market weakens
The price of houses in rural areas slipped by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2024, according to the latest results from the Knight Frank Prime Country House Index. Overall, values fell by 0.9% during the year. Demand for homes in the countryside has continued to fall since the Covid-19 pandemic, points out Head of UK Residential Research Tom Bill. Exchanges in 2024 were down 20% on the five-year average, he says. However, prices are expected to rebound by almost 18% over the next five years, Tom predicts.
Farmland Q4 2024 – Prices resilient
The farmland market edged up slightly during 2024, according to the latest results from the Knight Frank Farmland Index, which tracks the value of bare agricultural land in England and Wales. Average values started the year at £9,152/acre and, heading into 2025, stood at £9,164/acre, a slight rise of 0.1%. Given the challenges that the farming industry has faced over the past 12 months, this shows the inherent resilience of agricultural land as a multi-functional asset class. Prices, however, did dip in Q4 after Inheritance Tax reforms on farmland were announced as part of the Autumn Budget. For more insight and data please download the full report.
Development land Q3 2023 – Greenfield sites up
The average value of greenfield land values in England rose 3% in the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest instalment of our Residential Development Land Index. However, brownfield and prime central London prices stayed flat due to thin activity, with some market participants taking a “wait-and-see” approach ahead of the Budget, says the report’s author, Anna Ward. Housebuilders are also sceptical that it will be possible to deliver the 1.5 million new homes pledged by Labour over the next five years. Download the full report for more insight and data.