Why institutions are moving in to affordable housing
The sector’s long-term prospects are supported by both demographic trends and policy priorities, notes Paul Hawkey, Head of Affordable Housing at Knight Frank.
3 minutes to read
The UK’s affordable housing sector is rapidly emerging as an attractive asset class for institutional investors. Amid economic challenges, including rising financing costs and regulatory uncertainty, the demand for affordable housing continues to outstrip supply, creating a compelling case for investment.
According to the National Housing Federation, 145,000 new affordable homes are needed annually in England to meet demand, particularly in London and the South East. However, current delivery rates fall significantly short of this target; despite a 7% year-on-year increase in delivery in 2023, only 63,605 new affordable homes were built. This persistent gap between supply and demand is a fundamental driver for continued and increased investment in the sector, and is something we explored further in our recent Affordable Housing report.
Institutional investment is growing
The influx of institutional capital into the affordable housing sector has been one of the most notable developments in recent years. The number of For Profit Registered Providers (FPRPs) has more than tripled over the past decade, and their stock now represents a growing share of the affordable housing market. This rise in institutional involvement is not just a trend but a structural shift, with projections suggesting that the number of homes owned by FPRPs could nearly treble to 86,000 by 2028.
For investors, affordable housing offers several attractive characteristics. The sector’s inherent supply-demand imbalance ensures robust long-term demand, while the potential for steady, inflation-hedged income streams makes it a compelling investment proposition. Affordable housing aligns well with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals, particularly in terms of social impact, which is increasingly important for investors.
However, successfully navigating this nuanced market requires more than just recognising its potential. Investors must conduct significant research and due diligence, developing intricate growth strategies to address the unique challenges and opportunities within this sector.
Despite its potential, the affordable housing sector faces significant challenges. Registered Providers, who have traditionally been the backbone of affordable housing delivery, are nearing borrowing limits and grappling with financial pressures from decarbonisation and fire safety remediation costs. As a result, many Registered Providers are scaling back development programmes, leaving a gap that institutional investors could fill.
Moreover, the development slowdown, exacerbated by higher financing costs and a challenging regulatory environment, is likely to reduce the number of Section 106 deals – a key mechanism for delivering affordable housing.
This slowdown presents both a challenge and an opportunity. On the one hand, fewer deals might limit short-term growth; on the other hand, it opens up the market for innovative partnerships and new investment models, particularly with FPRPs looking to expand their portfolios through acquisitions or joint ventures.
A strategic investment for the future
For investors, the UK’s affordable housing sector represents not just a way to diversify portfolios, but also an opportunity to make a meaningful social impact. With demand outpacing supply and traditional providers facing significant constraints, the door is wide open for institutional capital to play a transformative role.
The fundamentals of the sector remain strong: the need for affordable housing is undeniable, and the sector’s long-term prospects are supported by both demographic trends and policy priorities. As the market evolves, the institutional capital that invests in affordable housing will not only contribute to addressing a critical social issue but also stand to benefit from stable, long-term returns.
While challenges persist, the UK’s affordable housing market offers significant potential for growth. Institutional investors who recognise and act on this opportunity will be well-positioned to benefit from the sector’s robust fundamentals and the growing demand for affordable homes for years to come.
For more details contact Paul, or download our Affordable Housing report