Labour’s UK housing plans welcomed, but beware of soundbites and simplification
Developers have responded positively to Keir Starmer’s pro-development rhetoric, but political aims will need to square with economic reality.
2 minutes to read
Keir Starmer had more to say about housing than Rishi Sunak at his party conference this month.
While the Prime Minister outlined a plan to build thousands of homes near Euston station, Starmer made housing a central theme of his speech, announcing a plan to build 1.5 million homes in five years.
It’s a big number but unlikely to stand up to scrutiny for reasons that I’ll explain.
However, it shows how Labour will put UK housing centre-stage ahead of the next election, which is expected to happen in 2024. Ongoing rows over the green belt, nimbyism and a painful rise in mortgage costs means Starmer won’t struggle to keep the issue in the spotlight.
Some of what he said, and the thinking behind it, has merit.
Delivering affordable homes, whatever the tenure, will be a key Labour aim. Plans to build new towns using compulsory purchase orders for land bought at existing-use value seem like a sensible starting point. Just look at how Milton Keynes was born in the 1960s.
However, it will inevitably raise issues of fairness and legal objections. Checks and balances will be needed, something highlighted by former MP Oliver Letwin in his review of housing delivery in 2018.
Following party conference season, more landowners will certainly be re-appraising their portfolios, particularly given the density implications of Starmer’s Georgian architectural aspirations.
However, his five-year deadline for 1.5 million homes is in danger of becoming a political millstone. Housing delivery is tied to economic rather than political cycles.
Development corporations may be quickly created to deliver new towns, but they are unlikely to produce many homes during the first term of a Labour government. They are complex organisations with even more complex infrastructure requirements, which is why they tend to function best under a private-sector visionary.
Plans to “bulldoze the planning system” by Labour in order to deliver more homes may also prove to be an unwise choice of words.
The comments will already have councils of all political persuasions re-appraising their thoughts on what might happen under a Labour government.
But more planners and resources don’t necessarily equal more approvals. New planning officers won’t all come brandishing a rubber stamp.
No amount of wishful thinking changes the economic reality that housebuilders will only meet demand at prices set by the second-hand market. Delivery hasn’t fallen recently because planners have been otherwise engaged, but because of higher mortgages costs.
So, Labour has a broadly coherent set of plans that would energise the sector, but not one that is perfectly packaged. Beware of simple answers to hugely complex questions from politicians on all sides.
For now, housebuilders are certainly feeling positive about the pro-development tone.
Asked to comment on Labour’s plans, Matthew Pratt, chief executive of Redrow, said: “I wasn’t sure if I had died and gone to builder heaven”.
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