Farmland – a safe haven for 2023?

Often regarded as a safe haven during uncertain economic times and a good hedge against inflation, the farmland market remained resilient during the first three months of 2023.

According to the Knight Frank Farmland Index, the average value of bare land in England and Wales rose 2% on the quarter and 11% on the year to hit another record high of £8,728/acre. Prices continue to vary significantly, even at a local level, and farms and blocks of land are regularly selling for over £12,000/acre, according to Will Matthews, our Head of Farm & Estate sales.

Although supply is up on the year, the volume of land for sale is still at historically low levels while demand remains very firm. Much of the interest is coming from environmentally focussed buyers, including natural capital investors and funds. However, despite much attention from the media, they are far from dominating the market and, more often than not, are being outbid by more ‘traditional’ tax-driven, farmer or amenity buyers.

Environmental potential - Llandilo Abercowin, a 283-acre dairy farm on the Taf Estuary with saltmarsh and two farmhouses. Guided at £3.85m.

So far, the imbalance between supply and demand has meant that the increase in the cost of borrowing, falling agricultural support payments and sliding grain prices appear to have had little impact on the market. However, we do expect the volume of land for sale to continue rising as more farmers approaching retirement take advantage of current market conditions to exit the industry before the next general election and a potential change of government.

There are few signs though that the supply/demand equation will reverse drastically as the nascent environmental markets discussed above continue to build momentum and the tax treatment of land put into ‘green’ schemes is clarified.