The Knight Frank Rural Property and Business Update – 19 April

To paraphrase the footballing analogy, this week’s update is a report of two halves when it comes to data. On the one hand we have arable and livestock commodity values pushing in the right direction, while land prices in England and Wales are holding firm, despite the pandemic and Brexit. But before farmers celebrate too much they should probably use Defra’s new support payment calculator to work out just how quickly their Basic Payment Scheme claims are going to fall over the next few years. Most worryingly of all though we also share the sombre news that UK farm deaths have hit a 25-year high. Producing food is arguably the world’s most important industry, but it’s not worth dying for.

Please do get in touch with me or my colleagues mentioned below if you’d like to discuss any of the issues covered. We’d love to hear from you

Andrew Shirley, Head of Rural Research

In this week’s update:

• Commodity markets – Volatile grain markets bounce back
• Farmland values – Q1 Knight Frank Farmland Index results published
• Market analysis – Join our latest rural webinar
• Farm support – Work out how much Brexit will hit your bottom line
• Health & Safety – Farm deaths hit long-term high
• Overseas news – Climate change hitting global agricultural productivity

Commodity markets – Volatile grain markets bounce back

As predicted in my commodity commentary last week, the release of the latest supply and demand report from the USDA helped wheat prices to regain much of their losses over previous weeks. The report highlighted an increase in maize demand from China as it rebuilds its pork sector after the recent outbreak of African swine fever, and a 3% year-on-year rise in global grain demand. Meanwhile, beef and sheep prices are also climbing. A friend in the meat industry tells me some processors are losing money as they are forced to source animals at prices that render some of their supermarket contracts unprofitable.

Farmland values – Q1 Knight Frank Farmland Index results published

The average value of agricultural land in England and Wales weathered the twin storms of Brexit and Covid-19 during the 12 months to the end of March 2021. Values fell by only £34/acre during the period and are currently hovering just under £7,000/acre.

We expect prices to start moving upwards over the coming year driven in part by strong demand from private and institutional buyers with a focus on sustainability and climate change mitigation.

Download the full report for more details and data trends

Market analysis – Join our latest rural webinar

Talking of land markets, there is still time to sign up for our latest rural webinar taking place at 9 am on Tuesday 20 April. The webinar, featuring a number of Knight Frank’s rural property experts, will provide more detailed insight into the trends driving agricultural land markets.

Filmed entirely on location in Wales, the format of the 30-minute webinar should make a refreshing change from the usual format of people stuck in their home offices and forgetting to unmute themselves.

Sign up for the webinar

Farm support – Work out how much Brexit will hit your bottom line

A handy new calculator on Defra’s website allows Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) claimants in England to work out how much their claims will reduce over the coming years as direct payments – due to end in 2027 - are phased out. Somebody currently claiming £50,000 will receive only £24,000 in 2024.

After 2024 Defra plans to introduce delinked payments based on BPS claims during a reference period rather than the acreage farmed by claimants. It is currently consulting on the way in which delinking will work.

Use the calculator to work out your future support

Health & Safety – Farm deaths hit long-term high

According to analysis by Farmers Weekly 51 people have been killed on the UK’s farms in the 12-months to the end of March. The fatalities include workers and members of the public as well as at least three children.

The death toll is the highest in the past 25 years and is double the rate from the previous 12 months. Of the fatalities, 14 were connected to quad bike accidents or overturned vehicles. The mortality rateb for those working on farms is 18 times higher than the average UK worker.

“The statistics are deeply depressing,” says Alastair Paul of Knight Frank’s Rural Asset Management team. “One of the risks we find a lot of people don’t think enough about is the danger of lone working. We ensure that every estate we manage has a bespoke health & safety policy in place.”

Please contact Alastair for advice on setting up health & safety policies

Overseas news – Climate change hitting global agricultural productivity

A new study from researchers at Cornell, Maryland and Stanford has revealed that global agricultural productivity has been hit by 21% due to climate change over the past 60 years. The research, which analysed data from 172 countries, shows seven years of growth has been lost due to rising temperatures, with warmer countries in Africa (-30%) and Latin America (-26%) hardest hit.

Find out more about the study

Photo by Dembee Tsogoo on Unsplash