Will rising cases lead to further lockdowns?
The number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases continues to grow and hit new records. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that widespread lockdowns are on the horizon.
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This week saw a record set for the daily number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, over 380,000 on 15 September. There have been rising case numbers across many countries, most notably in Europe (see chart below). Spain and France have seen their seven-day average cases exceed the previous peak in March and April yet both countries are not in full-lockdown, why and what does this tell us about the future course of the pandemic?
First reason, testing capacity. According to Our World in Data for when record began in late April Spain recorded a seven-day positive testing rate of 28%, most recently this was 11%, similarly the UK’s rate has gone from 30% to just over 1%. Given that cases are higher in Spain this shows the number of tests has significantly increased.
The virus also seems to be spreading among younger populations, this is indicated by the significantly lower death rate. The second chart below shows the seven-day moving average of daily deaths. At the height of the pandemic the ratio of deaths to cases averaged 10-20% in many European countries, it now sits below 1%.
As long as these trends continue, and hospitals cope with the level of cases, governments will try to avoid full-scale lockdowns and the economy can continue to function, albeit at a reduced capacity. Social distancing, mandatory mask wearing and restrictions on large scale gatherings will remain in place for some time to come. Many have adjusted to this ‘new normal’ and as more do so sentiment and confidence will return an enable the path to recovery to continue.
Photo by KOBU Agency on Unsplash