Europe: Rate cuts, Tariffs and Defence Spending
Plus, why commodity traders are flocking to Lake Geneva
3 minutes to read
1. Interest rates
Five rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to date and five by the end of the year – that’s the view of forecasting house Capital Economics.
This sets Europe, excluding the ultra-low rate-loving Swiss, on a different path compared to the US and UK.
Consequently, European households could benefit from cheaper debt in 2025, potentially boosting transactions.
A weaker Euro might also offer discounts to overseas buyers.
While this is positive news for the housing market, rate cuts alone won't address Europe's structural challenges. High energy prices, reduced competitiveness, and labour shortages remain significant issues.
These factors will limit wealth creation in the region, but to what extent? Will Europe continue to attract cross-border wealth inflows?
For the answers to this and more sign up to receive The Wealth Report 2025 (launching 5th March).
2. Tariffs & Defence
One month into Trump’s second term, Europe faces rising concerns over tariffs and defence spending, both of which could pressure national budgets and impact housing markets.
The timing is particularly challenging given Europe's deepening economic malaise and political fragmentation in France and Germany, and with Germany heading to the polls this Sunday.
• Defence Funding: France has proposed joint European Defence bonds, but individual governments are likely to bear the burden, adding fiscal strain to countries like France and Italy.
• Trade Risks: US tariffs pose challenges for Germany, Italy, Ireland, France, and the Netherlands—Europe’s biggest trade partners with the US.
• New Tax Measures: Governments are seeking ways to boost revenue, improve transparency and prevent wealth outflows. Here’s just a taster of what’s been announced or mooted for 2025, but expect more:
o Spain: Originally proposed as a 100% property tax on non-EU residents, Prime Minister Sanchez escalated the proposal to an outright ban. However, neither measure is expected to be approved. Read more here.
o UK: From April 2025, the Non-Dom tax regime will be abolished.
o Germany: From January, exit taxes apply to private investors leaving the country with investments shares over €500,000.
o Norway: Additional exit taxes and levies on dividends for those relocating abroad.
3. Lake Geneva
Switzerland’s status as the world’s largest commodities trading hub is a relatively new phenomenon which is driving demand around Lake Geneva, according to Knight Frank’s new Lake Geneva Residential Market Insight.
“Companies like Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria, Glencore and Gunvor are here and are contributing to luxury property demand. We have agreed several sales on Geneva’s left bank in the last 12 months for commodity traders,” according to Mehdi Bennassar of Naef Prestige, Knight Frank’s Partners in Switzerland.
Amid rising global uncertainties, Lake Geneva stands out as one of the premier destinations for UHNWIs seeking stability. Its political neutrality, economic stability, and the strong Swiss franc are adding to its appeal as a safe haven.
From prime price comparisons across the key markets of Cologny, Rolle, Founex and Montreux to a handy guide highlighting the cantonal tax differences between Geneva and Vaud, plus the perennial appeal of Switzerland’s international schools, the report is a must read for those considering relocating to the shores of Lake Geneva. Read more here.
In other news…
The problem with taxing overseas buyers (FT), France’s Budget pushed through, but the risk of slippage is high (ING), College at US$100,000 is driving more US students to Europe (Bloomberg).