Knight Frank Daily Update Wednesday 1st July
Gold surges, planning is reformed and second home markets hit ten year high
3 minutes to read
Good morning,
Need to know
Britain is on track for a V-shaped recovery as the economy rebounds from the lockdown far faster than expected, the Bank of England’s chief economist said yesterday.
Andy Haldane said the country was already two months into the recovery and that the depth of the recession was likely to be less than half as bad as the Bank had feared in May.
Mr Haldane's comments echo those made in a post earlier this week by former Institute for Economic Affairs chief economist Julian Jessop, and adds to a growing body of voices expecting a V shaped rebound.
In a timely reminder that we're likely to be buffeted by conflicting economic signals as this process develops, the British Chambers of Commerce yesterday published a survey of 7,706 companies in which indicators for longer-term business performance dropped to record lows, though the BCC economics chief noted Q2 is likely to be the low point.
Meanwhile, Britain's health situation is improving. The ONS said yesterday the number of registered deaths in England and Wales has fallen below the five-year average for the first time since the lockdown began.
As Europe moves towards reopening, the virus continues to spread across the US. The nation's top infectious disease expert said yesterday infections could more than double to 100,000 a day if current outbreaks were not contained.
Uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic in the US has helped push investors into safe-havens – with the gold price rising above $1,800 per oz for the first time since 2011.
The property market
Nationwide this morning said UK house prices fell by 1.4% in the month of June, following a 1.7% fall in May (release not yet online). On a seasonally adjusted basis, house prices in June were 3.2% lower than in April, the lender said.
A reminder that in May we forecast a 7% dip in UK prices this year, with much of that decline having already taken place between March and May.
Boris Johnson yesterday announced what he called the “most radical reforms of our planning system” since the Second World War.
Anna Ward speaks to Knight Frank head of planning Stuart Baillie about what's positive, what's missing, and what might be in the small print.
Since 11 May, when the French property market reopened for business, our 30+ strong office network in France have reported their busiest weeks for more than a decade, writes Kate Everett Allen.
France is still the most visited country in the world and for many high-net-worth individuals the ultimate second home destination, yet it’s not, so far, international buyers behind the surge in activity but French citizens, along with those from neighbouring countries.
With inventory levels are shrinking and lending rules tightening, our head of international sales Mark Harvey offers some advice to buyers.
A reminder that tomorrow at 09:30am Will Matthews will be discussing the listed real estate sector and the latest market signals with Matthew Saperia, real estate equity analyst at Peel Hunt. Sign up here.
If you have any questions, please contact me, or the team.