The Rural Update: Food security resilience lacking
Your weekly dose of news, views and insight from Knight Frank on the world of farming, food and landownership
8 minutes to read
Viewpoint
It is tempting to dismiss concerns about food security as overblown. But a quick read through this week’s update reveals a number of growing threats: the increasing spread of potentially devastating diseases across farm livestock species, the impact of climate change on farm businesses, and a move away from the established geo-political guardrails that have facilitated the relatively smooth flow of agricultural commodities around the world.
A new report from the UK’s National Preparedness Commission discussed below also highlights how ill-prepared the public and policymakers are for a sudden food-supply shock. The study digs far deeper than the current woes facing farmers, but it does call for more relocalisation and regionalisation of food supply, something that the proposed national Land-Use Framework launched by Defra last week could do well to consider.
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Commodity markets
Markets volatile as Trump trades
Commodity markets are struggling to come to terms with President Trump’s highly transactional approach to global trade. His announcement that Canada and Mexico would be hit with 25% tariffs on exports into the US, and China with tariffs of 10%, signalled a challenging period for commodities last week. Early trade for wheat futures was unsurprisingly lower, notes Frontier, with traders concerned the tariffs would slow trade and therefore the sales pace for US commodities. But when news broke that the tariffs for Mexico would be delayed for at least a month after the country agreed to send more troops to the border to control immigration and drug smuggling, markets regained their losses and moved higher. Whether markets become more sanguine remains to be seen.
The headline
Food resilience lacking
A new report from the National Preparedness Commission draws some startling conclusions. Just in case: 7 steps to narrow the UK civil food resilience gap, written by Tim Lang, Professor Emeritus of Food Policy at the University of London, says the government has done little to prepare the general public for potential disruptions to food supply.
The report defines civil food resilience as the capacity of people in their daily lives to be more aware of risks to food, more skilled in reducing unnecessary risks, and more prepared to act with others to ensure all of society is well-fed in and after crises. This, it says, requires a process of learning, capacity-building and preparation, which is not being supported by policymakers.
“There is a danger of the UK repeating past mistakes, assuming others will always feed us and that the state has the military and logistics capacity to maintain food normality. It might not,” states the report, which lists 20 “threat conditions” that could disrupt the food chain and whose industry contributors were sober about the lack of preparedness.
One of the report’s 15 key recommendations says land-use policy, such as England’s National Planning Policy Framework, should give higher priority to food production potential in and around urban areas. It also calls for the relocalisation and regionalisation of food production, taking account of public access to land for food growing, where possible.
News in brief
Too much water for farms
The number of farming businesses forced to take action as a result of climate change, in particular too much rain, has jumped sharply, according to the newly released results of Defra’s latest Farmer Opinion Tracker for England. Two-thirds of survey respondents in 2024 said they had needed to make changes to their business, compared with 55% in 2023. Last week, the government also announced details of its two-year £2.65 billion flood defence plan.
Too little water for homes
Conversely, a water shortage could prevent almost 62,000 new homes in the east and southeast of England from receiving planning consent, according to a new report from Public First. This could cost the UK economy £25 billion, the report estimates. The shortage has already sparked a demand for “water credits” in southern England. Please contact Jamie Evans-Freke for more details on the potential opportunities for landowners.
Reared game avian flu regs
The government has updated its avian flu guidance for reared game shoots. Game birds, including pheasant, partridge and ducks bred for shooting, must not be released into the wild in a disease control zone or an avian influenza prevention zone (AIPZ) with housing measures. Birds can be released into the wild in an AIPZ in areas without housing measures and where no disease control zones are in force.
Bird flu in US beef herds
As reported in the New York Times, the spread of avian flu into other species is increasingly of concern to scientists. Dairy cows in Nevada have been infected with a new form of bird flu, H5N1, that is distinct from the version that has been spreading through herds over the past year, the US Department of Agriculture announced last Wednesday. “This is not what anyone wanted to see,” said Louise Moncla, an evolutionary biologist who studies avian flu at the University of Pennsylvania. “We need to now consider the possibility that cows are more broadly susceptible to these viruses than we initially thought.”
Pig feed consultation
Defra has just launched a consultation that proposes allowing pigs to be fed feed containing poultry, porcine and insect processed animal protein (PAP). The practice of feeding animals food derived from other animals was banned following the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, otherwise known as mad cow disease, in the UK in 1986. However, researchers have now found that pigs and poultry are not naturally susceptible to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The consultation closes on 1 April.
Clean grid and power update
Announcements on how the government plans to decarbonise the UK’s energy grid by 2030, including streamlining the approvals process for renewable energy projects and the release of its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, have been landing in a confusingly piecemeal way. Now, however, Flora Harley, Knight Frank’s Head of ESG Research, has pulled them all together to highlight the implications and opportunities for landowners. Read Flora’s thoughts.
Nuclear diversification
Meanwhile, Keir Starmer also said last week that he would be changing planning rules to make it easier to build small modular reactors (SMRs). Currently, nuclear power stations can only be built in eight designated locations. Some are predicting that the first SMRs could be online by the 2030s. Current large-scale nuclear schemes take decades to deliver.
Win wine with salary survey
Everybody taking part in the 2025 Knight Frank Estate Staff Salary Survey, which provides an invaluable benchmark for estate owners of current staff salaries, will be entered into a draw to win two cases of Chapel Down English wine. For a chance to win and take part in the survey, please click here.
Property of the week
North Yorks rural business opportunity
Carlshead Farm at Sicklinghall, near Wetherby, offers a wealth of opportunities. As well as 502 acres of Grade 2 and 3 land, the property includes Carlshead Business Centre, which provides a modern workspace in a range of converted traditional farm buildings. Available as a separate lot if required, Carlston Hill Farm includes a three-bedroom farmhouse, an educational facility and a large range of modern and traditional farm buildings that make it an ideal setting for community projects or therapeutic farming. A pair of cottages is also lotted separately. The guide for the whole is £8.3 million. Please contact Claire Whitfield for more details.
Discover more of the farms and estates on the market with Knight Frank
Property markets
Development land Q4 2024 – Housing delivery down
Only 2% of the 50 housebuilders recently surveyed by Knight Frank believe that the sector will deliver the 300,000 new homes that the government is targeting for 2025. The gloomy prognosis is contained in the latest instalment of our Residential Development Land Index report, compiled by researcher Anna Ward, which reveals that the price of green and brownfield development land remained flat in the final quarter of the year, despite Labour’s ambitious housebuilding targets and planning reforms. Download the full report for more insight and data.
Country houses Q4 2024 – Market weakens
The price of houses in rural areas slipped by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2024, according to the latest results from the Knight Frank Prime Country House Index. Overall, values fell by 0.9% during the year. Demand for homes in the countryside has continued to fall since the Covid-19 pandemic, points out Head of UK Residential Research Tom Bill. Exchanges in 2024 were down 20% on the five-year average, he says. However, prices are expected to rebound by almost 18% over the next five years, Tom predicts.
Farmland Q4 2024 – Prices resilient
The farmland market edged up slightly during 2024, according to the latest results from the Knight Frank Farmland Index, which tracks the value of bare agricultural land in England and Wales. Average values started the year at £9,152/acre and, heading into 2025, stood at £9,164/acre, a slight rise of 0.1%. Given the challenges that the farming industry has faced over the past 12 months, this shows the inherent resilience of agricultural land as a multi-functional asset class. Prices, however, did dip in Q4 after Inheritance Tax reforms on farmland were announced as part of the Autumn Budget. For more insight and data please download the full report.