Midweek property news update
Caribbean nomads, real-time rents and a view from the UK housing queue
3 minutes to read
Volatility is on the rise
The papers lead with some grim Covid-19 milestones this morning as both the UK and France record the most deaths since spring and Italy and Greece post record numbers of new cases. The US has recorded 500,000 new cases in the past week.
This news is putting pressure on shares across Europe and the US and the dollar has rebounded against other major currencies.
Wall Street's volatility index also reached a two-month high with six days to go until election day and the lingering possibility the vote will be contested. Turnout is likely to be remarkable and more than half the number of voters that turned out in 2016 have already voted.
A view from the queue
The FT this morning reports that surging demand in the UK housing market has left an extra 140,000 buyers in the queue to finalise their home purchase. This theme is not limited to the UK. In August, house prices in 20 of the largest US metropolitan areas climbed 5.2% from a year earlier, the most in two years. That follows data published last week showing existing home sales at a 14-year high.
That's being driven by low mortgage rates and demand for single family - or detached - homes as buyers seek more space following long periods of working from home.
Real-time rents
Real-time economic data from flight tracking to monitoring cars and cyclists via traffic cameras has come into its own during a pandemic in which the time lag between real world events and the publication of official statistics renders it impossible to know what's really happening.
We have been surveying some of the biggest UK investors in professionally managed PRS, who collectively own and manage more than 22,500 built and let residential units, to give a real-time view of how many tenants have been unable to pay rent.
Rent collection averaged 94.1% in September and has held steady at 95.4% over the past seven months. Stronger performance that some other managed real estate sectors reflects both the resilience of rental markets when faced with economic headwinds, as well as the needs-based nature of the sector.
The rise of the nomad visa
With more of the world’s population no longer tied to an office and with many families home-schooling, the prospect of relocating to sunnier climes during the winter months is a tempting one.
Tourism accounts for between 8% and 40% of GDP across the Caribbean islands, and governments are turning to ‘nomad visas’ to attract visitors and boost their economies, writes Kate Everett-Allen.
Knight Frank’s head of Caribbean sales, Edward de Mallet Morgan says local teams are seeing bookings for two to three months rather than the usual two or three weeks and viewings in Barbados increased 34% in Q2 2020 year-on-year.
Retail upheaval
Prices in British shops fell more slowly this month than in September, according to new data from the British Retail Consortium.
Stephen Springham unpicks the latest data from the sector. UK retail sales values were up +6.0% year-on-year in September, while volumes were up +6.4%. This represents the strongest monthly rate of growth since March 2019. Non-food sales achieved their first positive year-on-year growth since January.
In other news...
In a new Rural Update, Andrew Shirley's analysis turns to innovative alternative land uses that are increasingly likely to become part of long-term strategic estate planning as Brexit, climate change and other environmental concerns force a rethink on more traditional farming and land-use activities.
Also:
Pfizer in ‘last mile’ of creating vaccine; a useful vaccine tracking chart; HSBC considers home-office ‘hybrid’ work model; England’s planning shake-up fuels fears of stalled housebuilding; the number of new companies set up this year is likely to break the record; and finally EU's Barnier resumes Brexit trade talks in London.