Retail Investment: the tide begins to turn

Written By:

Stephen Springham, Knight Frank

10 Dec 2021

8 minutes to read

Categories: Property Sector Retail World Regions UK London

Key messages

• Retail transaction volumes projected to hit £7.43bn for 2021
• A +69% increase on the “annus horribilis” of 2020
• 2021 only -3.5% below 10 yr average volumes (£7.72bn)
• Retail warehouses (+ foodstores) very much the driver
• Retail warehousing volumes of £3,385m (46% of total)
• Highest annual volumes since 2017
• Yield compression of -150bps since Q1 2021
• On course to deliver total returns in 2021 of 22%+
• Foodstore volumes of £1,950m (26% of total)
• Above both last year and 10 yr averages
• High street volumes of £800m (11% of total)
• Shopping centre volumes of £1.3bn (17% of total)
• Generational change of ownership in shopping centre market

A year of two halves

In a nutshell: retail warehouses and foodstores very much the retail sector of choice for investors. Accordingly, significant retail warehousing deal volumes (>£3bn) and yield compression (-150bps). Foodstore demand outstripping supply also resulting in downward pressure on pricing. Demand for high street retail still strongest for assets in the South East, with re-positioning/re-development/alternative use options key. Shopping centres a very mixed bag, with a generational change of ownership underway. Demand far stronger for smaller lot sizes and convenience-led schemes; absence of debt continuing to hold back demand for larger lot sizes.

The latter half of 2021 has been characterised by the continued separation of the retail sub-sectors, with record levels of demand for retail warehousing and foodstores, and subdued interest in the in-town markets. Yields were drifting out to attractive levels, although this proved to be temporary in the case of retail warehousing, which has witnessed a surge in demand and therefore pricing. Across all sectors, however, there is growing consensus that rents have rebased to affordable levels, with new deals being agreed closer to expected rental levels than before and with this there is growing investment demand.

The occupational picture continues to stabilise with most tenants returning to more “normal” levels of trade and arrears balances being largely worked through to the extent that only the remnants of this pandemic nuisance remain. Retailers are preparing themselves for a busy and important Christmas trading period and positive footfall trends (recovering to -13.7% of pre-pandemic levels in October) suggest that shoppers are ready to return to retailing environments in far greater numbers than in previous years.

Volumes not far off 10 year averages

Total deal volumes are anticipated to reach £7.43 billion by the end of 2021, close to the 10 year average of £7.72 billion, despite a turbulent period impacted by pandemic-induced lockdowns. Within this though, exceptional demand for retail warehousing and foodstores is masking slower years in the in-town high street and shopping centre sectors (although both are improving from a very low base).

Retail warehousing

Retail Warehousing will witness its strongest year since 2017 with deal volumes forecast to reach over £3 billion. The sector has experienced inward yield shift of 150bps+ as investors seek the perceived reliability of income on offer (often with only 5-6 tenants responsible for paying the rent), a stronger recovery from the pandemic due to their outdoor environments and in some cases pricing underwritten by potential for conversion to alternative uses such as residential and industrial.

For this reason, it continues to be the sector of choice, attracting a “who’s who” of institutional investors, REIT’s and overseas capital. Private equity investors, who opportunistically targeted the sector during 2020, can no longer compete with the lower cost of capital dominating the market and have had to turn their attentions to sectors exhibiting greater distress. Indeed, some investors are already turning assets acquired just 12 months ago, seeking to cash in on the Lazarus-like recovery.

Foodstores 

In a similar vein, foodstores have continued their stellar year with demand far outstripping supply and all on-market opportunities hotly contested. Supermarket REIT and US Realty, along with a host of UK institutions and REITs, continue to drive pricing and remain attracted to the longer leases and strong covenants being offered.

In town, demand has improved where rents can be seen to be truly rebased although in many cases, investors are still relying on conversion to alternative uses to drive returns rather than believing in an improvement in the yield. Valuations have been slower to correct on the high street than in the shopping centre sector, so buyer and seller aspirations have taken longer to align, although this gap is narrowing and liquidity has improved as a result.

High street

The high street buyer pool is significantly smaller at lot sizes >£10m and so stronger pricing is achieved in the sub-£5m market. Indeed, recent auctions have seen numerous successful retail sales at extremely strong pricing, compared to larger private treaty processes. Some are taking the view that yields of 8-9% or more are too attractive to resist, especially when compared to yields being paid in other sectors. Shops let to stronger covenants in the major cities have seen the strongest recovery although it is in the South East, where there is a perceived underwrite to alternative uses, where demand is strongest. Knight Frank’s sale of 145-147 High Street North, East Ham at £6.25m / 4.85% NIY is further evidence of this.

Leisure

There have been only a handful of leisure assets traded during 2021, with sellers seemingly waiting for evidence of demand before testing the market. Traditionally an institutional sector, given the long leases on offer, multiple enforced closures have deterred investment demand so far. However, with an improving occupational environment fuelled by a summer of “staycations”, it is likely that new sales will emerge early in the New Year.

Shopping centres

Shopping centre performance remains intensely polarised between those assets serving a purely convenience-led audience and those offering a more experiential purpose. Whilst a host of local centres have traded in the market this year (suggesting that some investors are readily buying into their longevity), we have seen very few regional malls test the market, in a sign that vendors’ remain unconvinced by the level of demand in this arena.

A generational change of ownership is underway in the shopping centre market, with the sector’s traditional landlords (UK institutions, REIT’s and pension funds) having either sold or being well on the way to selling their shopping centre exposures. As a result, nearly 50% of deals during 2021 were concluded by new entrants into the sector, and we anticipate many of these investors will continue to seek new opportunities in 2022.

Whilst these funds remain the largest source of supply, most shopping centres acquired with debt since the GFC are now in the hands of their lenders, most of whom are unwilling owners and will seek to sell at the earliest opportunity. We have already seen numerous examples, and their successful sales are likely to spur others to follow suit. The sale of St George’s, Preston at £21.5m, where Knight Frank advised the lenders on the sale to local property company the Adhan Group, is one such example.

We are beginning to see the turning of the tide, with some sales processes drawing multiple bids. Typically, these sales have been <£20m with initial yields of 12%+, attracting regionally specific property companies or private investors. However, some opportunities, such as sales in Yate, Washington & Cwmbran (sold as a £140m package) and Cambridge have shown the growing demand in larger lot sizes, previously not present due to the absence of debt. Lendlease’s 25% share of Bluewater is also rumoured to be under offer to sell at >£215m, in what could be a bellwether transaction for the sector.

Factory outlets 

Factory Outlets, historically much-loved due to the transparency offered to the owner as a result of their turnover-linked leases, are seeing a resurgence with multiple sales testing this market. Best-in-class examples in Bridgend, Cheshire Oaks and Swindon are all expected to sell in the coming months, attracting REIT and institutional interest, in a sign that not all multi-let retail is to be avoided and there remains demand for the right opportunity.

Outlook

More of the same and further improvement against a hopefully far more benign backcloth:

• Retail warehousing to remain the sector of choice with resilient demand causing yields to compress further
• Foodstores to continue their bull run although on-market stock will be scarce and the specialist funds are increasingly dominating the sector
• High street recovery to take hold in the South East but attractive income returns could tempt investors further afield
• Shopping centres to continue their wholesale change of ownership, with further bank-led and institutional sales expected to test the market in the New Year
• Leisure assets could see renewed demand as occupational performance improves following the year of the “staycation”
• Moratorium of evictions to provide a minor speedbump but otherwise an improving occupational environment should support the growing investment demand into the New Year

So much for 2021. Not as bad as 2020, but still plenty of aftershocks from the pandemic. Onwards to 2022.

Watch this space for our more detailed predictions for what next year may have in store for the retail sector. Next week, we will publish our ‘Retail Property Market Outlook 2022 Report’ which includes our projections (both quantitative and qualitative) for consumer, occupier and investment markets.

Next week’s Retail Note will summarise the full Report. Spoiler alert: while not totally bullish, we are more positive than others in the sector. Hold both that thought and the front page…