Omicron, UK property's January sales and the cost of a view
Making sense of the latest trends in property and economics from around the globe.
3 minutes to read
Covid-19 latest
Treasury yields, stock markets and oil all rose overnight amid claims from South African researchers that symptoms from the new variant Omicron may be milder than first feared.
The World Health Organization sought to calm nerves over the weekend by stating there was no evidence to suggest symptoms were any different from existing variants, though understanding the strain's level of severity “will take days to several weeks."
Beyond that, there's little clarity this morning that we didn't have on Friday. The UK is stepping up its booster programme, facemasks are back in shops and public transport and incoming travellers will once more have to take PCR tests. Variant jabs will be ready in early 2022, should they be necessary.
Interest rates
It remains too early to say what impact the emergence of Omicron will have on consumer spending over Christmas, or whether it will have any material impact on the pace of the reoccupation of offices.
The news will certainly sow doubt among the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, which was already facing a dilemma as to whether to hike the base rate a little over a fortnight from now. Several hurdles have been cleared; the jobs market has shrugged off the end of furlough and inflation is now above 4%, but the prevailing weakening of the manufacturing sector and the lack of information regarding Omicron are significant counterweights.
Investors rapidly scaled back their bets on a hike on Friday, but that could come back a little today. Bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike moved from June to July.
January sales
Spring is a busy period in the UK residential market every year, but competition is likely to be particularly intense this year. There are large numbers of frustrated sellers who were unable to move this year given how quickly the shelves cleared ahead of successive stamp duty deadlines.
To put this in context, while the number of UK sales instructions in 2021 is likely to be in line with the long-run average, the total will be down by about a quarter compared to 2020. That’s quite a drop given the race for space has not yet run its course.
With that in mind, Tom Bill lays out why the best time for sellers to act might be early in the new year.
Waterfront views
New research from Michelle Ciesielski reveals the premiums buyers in Australia pay for waterfront views.
Prime properties with harbour frontage command the largest premiums, at 114%. That's up from 103% a year ago. Coastal views command an 86% premium, while for river frontage prime buyers will pay an extra 67% on average.
To see how those compared with the UK, see the latest waterfront research from Chris Druce.
In other news...
In a new Rural Market Update, Andrew Shirley weighs up the red meat sector's journey to net zero.
Elsewhere - EU banks demand access to City markets in blow for Brussels (Telegraph), and finally, new green jobs could worsen UK’s regional inequalities (Times).
Photo by Gilberto Olimpio on Unsplash