Midweek property news update
Human trials, pressure on the property market and the appeal of mountain living
2 minutes to read
Is the UK’s Covid surge slowing?
Boris Johnson unilaterally imposed top tier coronavirus restrictions on Greater Manchester last night. The restrictions which come into effect on Friday include the forced closure of pubs which do not serve food and an advisory not to travel in or out of the region.
While Manchester leads almost every newspaper this morning , the FT carries an analysis of both random sample data from the ONS and a more up-to-date Covid Symptom Study run by King’s College London that indicates the autumn surge in cases may be slowing. Though both datasets show new cases continuing to rise, neither are showing the exponential increases witnessed a fortnight ago.
The appeal of mountain living
We've been following the search for space that is driving a significant amount of property market activity, whether in Yorkshire, London's commuter towns or inside prime central London.
Chris Druce takes this analysis a step further this morning with his trip to the mountains and an examination of the Swiss markets. Despite Brexit complications and a weak pound, sales activity from UK buyers as well as locals has been strong and prices have held firm.
Pressure on the system
Back in the UK, the surge in property market activity continues as buyers seek to finalise moves ahead of the end of the stamp duty holiday. The scope of demand is putting pressure on the conveyance system, particularly at banks, which means that lead times are growing. We'll have more detail on navigating the mortgage market in Friday's note.
Meanwhile, Bellway has reinstated its dividend payments. In the nine weeks since August 1st, the company has averaged 239 reservations a week, up more than 30% on the same period a year ago.
The economic outlook
Healthy housing market activity is taking place amid an increasingly mixed economic outlook. Predictably, shopper numbers fell for a fourth straight week and economists now expect the economy to expand 2.6% this quarter and 1.0% next - weaker than the respective 3.4% and 1.3% median forecasts given last month, according to a Reuters poll.
It looks increasingly likely the Bank of England will add more stimulus in the coming weeks. That's likely to be the favoured approach over a move to negative rates for the time being, according to BOE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe.
Human challenge trials
Volunteers in London are to be infected with coronavirus early next year, in the world’s first Covid-19 “human challenge trials”. The experiment aims to accelerate the development of vaccines that could end the pandemic.
Meanwhile, AstraZeneca's US vaccine trial is expected to resume as early as next week after the FDA completed its review into a serious illness of a participant.
In other news...
Sterling hasn’t plunged on no-deal threat — the markets don’t believe it; Boris Johnson’s 3-year UK spending master plan set to be ditched; the US and the UK upbeat as trade talks enter a new round; and finally, outbound Covid testing has been launched at Heathrow.