Capital Gains Tax Speculation Boosts Supply in Prime London Markets
August 2024 PCL Sales Index: 5,283.1
August 2024 POL Sales Index: 274.3
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Rachel Reeves hasn’t stood up in Parliament to deliver her first Budget yet, but it’s already having repercussions in the property market.
In particular, there are concerns that tax changes may curb demand and increase downwards pressure on prices in higher-value markets.
The government has said private schools will be charged VAT from January, but other announcements on 30 October may focus on capital gains tax (CGT), non doms, pension tax relief and inheritance tax.
While there was a 34% increase in the number of sales in London in July and August compared to the five-year average, there was a 16% decline above £2 million, Knight Frank data shows.
When you consider that £2 million-plus sales accounted for 22% of the £11.7 billion raised in stamp duty last year, it highlights the risk of tax rises having unintended consequences.
The other way in which the Budget is impacting the property market relates to CGT and speculation that it may increase from its current level of 24%.
Supply looks set to rise this autumn, which will be driven in part by owners attempting to sell before any changes are introduced.
In an indication that more sellers are planning to list their property, the number of market valuation appraisals in August was 25% above the five-year average in London, Knight Frank data shows. Any future rise in supply would increase downwards pressure on prices.
“We are seeing a significant increase in market appraisals and listings from clients who have residential lettings portfolios,” said Andrew Groocock, chief operating officer of Knight Frank’s estate agency business.
“There is a feeling among many owners that they are better off bringing their properties to the market now and perhaps accepting a price that is 5%-10% lower, rather than running the risk of a CGT increase after the Budget.”
Average prices in prime central London (PCL) continued to edge down on a monthly basis in August. A fall of 0.2% took the annual change to -2.3%, which was the 16th month in a row the annual change was negative.
In fact, annual price growth in PCL has not been above 3% since March 2015 and prices remain 18% down on their last peak in August 2015.
Prices in prime outer London were flat in the 12 months to August as lower-value, needs-driven property markets perform more strongly. By comparison, prices in POL are 8% below their last peak in July 2016.
Our latest prime London forecasts can be found here but are subject to change depending on the content of the Budget.