UK house price expectations cool as cost of living squeeze tightens
Households sense residential property market may be near its peak.
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Following news that consumer confidence is falling, we now have the first signs of potentially ebbing sentiment amongst homeowners.
May’s reading of +64 for future house price expectations was the weakest since December 2021 in the IHS Markit Household Sentiment Index (see chart). Current house price sentiment dropped back to +59 in May from +60 in April.
A score of more than 50 represents strengthening sentiment, and both measures remain significantly above their pre-pandemic position.
Meanwhile, Nationwide, Halifax and the ONS recorded a narrowing annual rate of increase in their latest reports, adding to the evidence that UK house price growth may have peaked as headlines about the health of the UK economy mount.
It is causing a growing number of sellers to act sooner rather than later.
“I’m having plenty of conversations about the significant headwinds we’re facing that aren’t going away, and that’s led to a push to get property onto the market ASAP,” said Nick Chivers, office head at Knight Frank Cheltenham.
Given the rising cost of living and the Bank of England’s resolve to make borrowing more expensive to combat 40-year high inflation, we have forecast that double-digit house price growth will moderate to single digit by the year’s end.
With demand in the housing market robust rather than ferocious at present, we expect price growth to moderate as housing supply continues to pick up. This should correct the long-standing imbalance between supply and demand that has seen house prices defy economic gravity since the start of the pandemic.