Friday property news update - 18 June
The green homes problem, rural ESG and the global inflation surge
5 minutes to read
I'm pleased to share with you our new Global Buyer Survey, our annual look at how buyer attitudes are changing around the world. As some markets reopen, and travel rules are tentatively relaxed, this is a critical time to gauge the key priorities for buyers, their future plans and aspirations.
The survey should take just a couple of minutes and the link is here. Many thanks for taking part.
Green homes
Chancellor Rishi Sunak's difficult interview with Andrew Neil of GB News yesterday signposts what is to become a battle over who will pay the bill to "green" the nation's housing stock. Official figures suggest homes account for almost 30% of energy use and around 20% of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, which makes retrofitting hugely important if the government is to hit its 2050 net zero target.
We've talked before about the growing but nascent market for Green Mortgages. Those products will be important, but it's clear more must be done. Traditional gas heating is due to be phased out by 2050 and it will cost an estimated £10,000 per household to replace domestic gas boilers with heat pumps.
The costs won't stop there either. As the Spectator's Ross Clark notes, in many cases solid wall insulation will add another £10,000 to £15,000 to the bill. That will fall disproportionately on homeowners in the centres of industrial towns in the Midlands and North, where there are huge numbers of solid-walled 19th century and early 20th century homes.
The government scrapped the Green Homes Grant after just six months and the need for a replacement system of grants is clear. Government plans to tackle the issue in any meaningful sense aren't finalised, if the chancellor's interview is anything to go by.
ESG
This week we launched a special, environment, social and governance (ESG)-themed edition of The Rural Report. As editor Andrew Shirley notes, initial scepticism among many in the sector has largely fallen away and the theme is now viewed as an opportunity.
Being rewarded for delivering environmental benefits is becoming increasingly important to landowners amid growing pressure on incomes, but it’s not just about climate change and carbon. Flood mitigation will become increasingly important, as will “social prescribing”, where access to the countryside is used as a tool to help mental and physical wellbeing.
As Andrew notes, there is a growing acceptance that the food and farming sector in the UK needs to do more to improve the opportunities for new entrants, to inject new diverse thinking and approaches. To explore that further, I recommend this interview with Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones, better known as The Black Farmer.
Global inflation
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday significantly raised its expectations for inflation this year. Members of the Fed's policy committee now expect two interest rate hikes in 2023, after the Fed said in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.
That came hours after it emerged that the UK's consumer price index lept to 2.1% in May, outstripping the Bank of England's 2% inflation target for the first time in two years. Sterling slipped below $1.40 and the euro slipped to $1.19.
The path of borrowing costs is likely to begin trending upwards. Markets are now betting UK interest rates will begin to rise early next year and, according to Alex Ogario of Knight Frank Finance, some of the largest private banks that we work closely with are already building rate rises into their behaviour, notching up the price of their products. Bank of England data showing average two year fixed products at 1.19% are likely to be as cheap or close to as cheap as it gets in this cycle.
Housing bubbles
Bloomberg's interview with Blackstone president John Gray tackles surging house prices, spiking build costs and cheap mortgages in the US. Despite worsening affordability the housing market, according to Gray, isn't showing the typical warning signs of a bubble - too much leverage, too much capital, and too much building, he says.
He's also bullish on cities, and suggests there will be a “rediscovery” of cities such as New York and San Francisco, fueled by immigrants, creativity, entrepreneurship and technology.
Anna Ward, Tom Bill and Toscafund chief economist Savvas Savouri tackle the housing bubble question in a new Intelligence Talks entitled "Is Britain's house price boom a bubble set to burst?" They discuss the jobs market, wage inflation and 110% mortgages.
Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts.
China new homes
Data from China suggests the government's efforts to cool the housing market are taking hold. Average new home prices in 70 major cities grew 0.6% in May, unchanged from April, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
China's government has arguably been the most active in intervening to cool its housing market. Measures introduced have included capping prices, placing limits on debt accumulated by developers and guiding banks to increase mortgage rates.
In other news...
The UK is a world-leader in genomics. Jennifer Townsend expands on the key clusters, opportunities for growth and how it's impacting real estate.
Elsewhere - White House says earlier Fed rate hikes will not jack up low projected borrowing costs, the CBI expects UK economic output to hit pre-crisis levels by the end of the year, the ‘Golden Triangle’ is the focus for a £714m property deal, the world's most expensive housing market grinds towards a new record, billionaires are tapping skyrocketing fortunes to fund record giving, and finally, the Crown Estate prepares for a century’s worth of change in next decade.