Diary of an agent: Stuart Bailey, Laura Dam Villena, Simon Burgoyne and Alastair Nicholson

Stuart Bailey (SB), above left, is head of prime sales for London; Laura Dam Villena (LV), above right, and Simon Burgoyne (Burgoyne), below left, are office heads in Hyde Park and Mayfair respectively; Alastair Nicholson (AN), below right, specialises in the prime market in Knightsbridge.

The 17 May marks another step back to normality. What’s surprised you most over the past year?

AN – The strength of the domestic market. Everyone talks about it having been a tough patch for PCL but there’s been no lack of liquidity. What we have seen is whereas 60% of our sales in Knightsbridge would have been flats previously and 40% houses, this flipped after the pandemic as domestic buyers favour houses with outdoor space.

LV – There was a real lightbulb moment when the roadmap out of lockdown was published in February. Having had few viewings in the first month of the year we had five properties go under offer almost immediately. 

Burgoyne - In Mayfair we are broadly where we would normally be if you look back at our performance over the past five years. The fundamental change that we’ve seen is that the majority of deals have been with UK rather than international buyers. This has provided opportunities domestically. I recently had a buyer from the north of England that purchased a pied-à-terre to save on hotel room bills.

While restrictions remain, this is a big moment for London, isn’t it?

AN - It certainly is. The part of the market that has been challenging is the pied-à-terre, which is favoured by international buyers seeking location over anything else. Traditionally, as the domestic market disappears over the summer months, international buyers arrive. They come for the trappings of London: Wimbledon tennis, the restaurants, theatres and shopping, which will be on offer again.

LV – It provides people with a reason to be in London. We already have several clients that are in quarantine ready for the return of the living, breathing city. The success of the vaccination programme has helped too. People have remained away from London due to the concern over the virus but can now see that the virus rates are low and there is a sense of normality returning. However, everyone has been willing to wait though. We’ve recently sold two properties virtually, to European buyers, at the asking prices. It illustrates that the international buyers in the market are serious, and not simply window shopping.

Burgoyne - In Mayfair it is all about recreational pursuits, so the desirability will only increase. And if a buyer is considering a purchase this may be the tipping point. Low borrowing costs, and for international buyers, the strength of the dollar against the pound support this, too.

Will the resumption of international travel over the coming months see upwards price pressure in PCL?

Burgoyne – I think we need to approach this with caution. Over the last six years the volume of deals has been consistent, and we have experienced a similar run-rate this year. So, while international buyers will be back it won’t be an influx and any impact will be measured. Also, talking to prospective buyers, they’ve been in lockdown too, and not everyone’s focus is immediately on a trip to another city. Some just want to escape to places like Miami and have a break after being cooped up for so long.

SB –People always need to move up, downsize, or look for more space. The periods of lockdown have fine-tuned this process and brought decisions forward for some. It’s a good situation for buyers in PCL, as interest rates remain very low and there’s the comfort that the market is moving up having reached a low ebb during the past five years.

AN – The biggest limiting factor in all of this remains the travel restrictions. For a lot of international buyers, it is more about what they face when they go home. We have buyers from Asia that would be happy to quarantine for ten days on arrival in the UK, but it’s the two to three weeks of restrictions that they face when they return home that’s putting them off.

What are your thoughts about the months ahead?

AN - With the end of Ramadan, we will see Middle Eastern buyers return as well as other international buyers. There is no shortage of international demand, as people have had a year to sit on their hands and work out what they want to do. While we will see some of this money come into the London market, I think it will be delayed until the autumn.

LV- Buyers are not the challenge. We have proven in the last year how many sales can take place domestically. The return of international buyers is the icing on the cake for sellers. The challenge for us is stock, as we have a significant amount of property under offer. It is a great time for prospective sellers to come to market.

SB – The last year has shown us that we are not as dependent on international buyers in PCL as we believed. The volume of sales was good, and pricing stable. We’d expect flats to come back into focus in the coming months with the return of international buyers, but based on the conversations I’ve had, I’m not expecting a huge wave of activity. Instead, it will be a welcome but manageable increase.