Covid-19 Daily Dashboard - 4 November 2020
An overview of key economic and financial metrics.
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Download an overview of key economic and financial metrics relating to Covid-19 on 4 November 2020.
Equities: Markets saw volatility overnight. In Europe this morning, stocks are higher, with gains recorded by the CAC 40 and the STOXX 600 (both +0.9%), as well as the FTSE 250 and the DAX (both +0.6%). In Asia, stocks were mixed on close, with the CSI 300 (+0.8%) and the Kospi (+0.6%) up, while the Hang Seng (-0.2%) and the S&P / ASX 200 (-0.1%) were lower. In the US, futures for the S&P 500 are +0.8% higher.
VIX: After contracting -4.3% over yesterday, the CBOE market volatility index continues to decline this morning, down -3.2% to 34.4. The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index has also decreased, contracting -8.0% to 30.1. Both indices remain elevated compared to their long term averages of 19.9 and 24.0.
Bonds: The US 10-year treasury yield has compressed -10bps this morning to 0.79%, while the UK 10-year gilt yield has contracted -4bps to 0.23% and the German 10-year bund yield is -3bps lower at -0.65%.
Currency: Sterling and the euro are currently $1.30 and $1.17, respectively. Hedging benefits for US dollar denominated investors into the UK and the eurozone are at 0.39% and 1.23% per annum on a five-year basis.
Baltic Dry: The Baltic Dry decreased -1.6% yesterday to 1,263, the lowest the index has been since 8th September. The Baltic Dry is now -35% lower than it was at the peak seen in July, and over the last 21 sessions, the index has seen cumulative declines of -40%. However the Baltic Dry remains +16% higher than it was in January.
Oil: Both Brent Crude and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have increased +2.7% over the morning to $40.77 and $38.69, respectively. The WTI has remained below $40 per barrel since 23rd October.
US Election: The most recent probability of President Trump being re-elected is 37%, while Joe Biden’s likelihood of winning the election is currently 79%, according to Predictit. The probability has sharply switched over the day, as this morning, President Trump had a 72% likelihood of being re-elected, whereas Joe Biden had a 30% probability of winning. This compares to yesterday’s 43% likelihood of President Trump being re-elected and a 63% probability of Joe Biden winning the presidency.