Unscrambling eggs: Ross Murray on the challenges of Brexit and the UK rural sector

The immense challenge of extracting the UK from 43 years of integration, investment, legal and commercial ties and cultural links with our European neighbours is proving more complex and difficult than anyone could have possibly imagined. 

It really is like unscrambling eggs. This was all too evident to me when I attended the European Landowners’ Organisation half-yearly gathering in Romania last month. To say my landowning friends on the continent are bemused, saddened and fearful is an understatement. 

But the ship has launched and the coming days and weeks will determine the trajectory of the UK’s self-imposed exile, even if part of Parliament stubbornly resists.

At the recent Hay Festival Simon Jenkins talked of his new book Europe - a short history. In a sweeping review of the past 2,500 years he notes that Britain has left and re-joined the continent nine times. So that gives some context to the past 43 years and our current struggles.

Michael Gove, Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, was in good voice at the CLA’s annual conference in London two weeks ago. He has lent his support to the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Bill and the deal with the European Union as currently laid down. 

His explanation of the Backstop was masterful, but he needs to persuade a far wider audience that Europe is unlikely to want it to continue, if there is no agreement on Northern Irish border affairs. It’s unlikely to sway many in the country, least of all in the Conservative and Unionist Parties. It is little surprise the vote has now been deferred.

All this political chaos masks the daily grind of business and our part in the wider economy. Markets have been surprisingly resilient, almost as if boredom has set in with the political class. But there is a notable lack of investment, and trading activity in the rural property markets cannot be described as anything other than muted. 

Agriculture is crying out for a revolution to disrupt the inefficient, unproductive and environmentally challenged farms. A restructuring of UK agriculture could be painful, or it could be protracted if Government opts to make it so, but the prospect of a better resourced, younger and more productive farming sector utilising new technologies is a prize that many crave. 

Michael Gove has set out his stall for the continued use of public money in the short term, and a mechanism for justifying the dependence on the taxpayer. But many farmers and their union, the NFU, are sceptical. 

And so is their attitude to the Climate Change Commission which tells us that up to half of all livestock should disappear to reduce greenhouse emissions.

Tell that to a West Country farmer with little prospect of diversification. And yet there are ever more imaginative ways of creating value from natural capital if these markets can be allowed to mature. But a cultural change in outlook will be necessary too.

And so the whole saga of Brexit, and the long term planning for UK agriculture and countryside regeneration which accompanies it, carries on and on.

Six possible scenarios on what happens next confront us: no deal, a renegotiation, a vote or even two, another referendum, a vote of no confidence or even a General Election. Take your pick and hang onto your hat! 

We live in interesting times.