The Monday note - 17 September 2018

• The FTSE 100 rose by 28 points last week, closing at 7,304.0 on Friday, thanks to growing speculation that the UK and EU are close to striking a Brexit withdrawal agreement. The 10-year gilt yield rose to 1.53%.
• The UK unemployment rate was steady in August at 4.0%, although the number of people working full time increased by 100,000. This was mirrored by a similar fall in the number of part time workers. 
• Wages in the UK increased by 2.9% in July, compared to a CPI inflation rate of 2.5%. 
• Fixed asset investment in China increased by 5.3% between January and August. This is the slowest rate of growth on record. 

Chief Economist comments: 

The Brexit talks seem to be progressing, raising hopes that a withdrawal agreement is at hand. Elsewhere in the global economy, the news is darker. To add to the woes of Argentina and Turkey, concerns are growing over the possible impact of Trump’s tariffs on China. How global investors’ view the UK could change very quickly in the coming months, with Britain once again assuming its historic role as a safe haven in uncertain times.