The Monday note - 5 June 2017

• The FTSE 100 closed on Friday at 7,547.6, which was only marginally down on a week earlier, as investors paused for breath after several weeks of growth for the index. Ten year Gilt yields stood at 1.04%. 
• The US economy added a less-than-expected 138,000 jobs in May, due to job losses in the manufacturing and retail sectors. However, unemployment edged down to 4.3%, reaching its lowest level since 2001. 
• The price of oil fell to $47.66 a barrel, despite OPEC and Russia agreeing to extend controls on production. Oil is back under pressure on concerns that US shale producers have not been pushed out of the market by the 2014-2015 price fall. 
• Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE have simultaneously cut off diplomatic and transport links with Qatar, accusing it of backing extremist groups. Qatar denies the allegations. 

Chief Economist comments: 

The General Election looms, and you can find an opinion poll to match most possible outcomes. I often wonder why anyone bothers with them, as at this stage in the 2015 election the polls were predicting a hung Parliament, then Cameron won a majority. The same thing happened in the 1992 election. The problem with opinion polls is they struggle to get people with a nine to five job to respond; plus come polling day the pensioners all vote, but waves of students often do not bother. Roll on Friday, when we find out who really has won, but more importantly for the economy the uncertainty ends.