European Leading Indicators | Is the Eurozone performing better than expected?

Here we look at the European leading indicators in the world of economics.

Download the dashboard for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more with a focus on Europe.

Key insights:

• The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has risen sharply from -41.0 at the beginning of the year to 51.4, with a positive measure indicating that economic data is faring better than expected. Meanwhile, the indicator remains in negative territory for the UK, pointing to an underperformance compared to consensus expectations.
• Eurozone inflation fell to 2.6% in February from 2.8% the previous month, with economists anticipating the Eurozone average inflation to settle around the 2% mark by the end of 2024. Forecasters expect that the ECB main policy rate will be cut by 25bps in June and reach 3.5-3.75% by year-end. This could encourage volumes to increase this year, with European cross-border activity potentially reaching ca. 8% below the post-GFC long-term average, according to our Active Capital research.
• The Baltic Dry Index which measures how much it costs to ship raw materials globally, has increased by 13% since early January amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This is expected to prompt many firms to focus on supply chain resilience.

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