The tide turns for retail, the growing clamour for a four day week and the Fed's worst call ever
Making sense of the latest trends in property and economics from around the globe.
4 minutes to read
Omicron
The UK government's new target to give boosters to all adults who want one by the end of the month will require the NHS to dish out more than a million booster jabs a day. The daily average of booster doses is just over 400,000 at present.
These numbers would have stretched the imagination at the outset of the pandemic but the infrastructure built up over the past 24 months has realigned what's possible. In his speech last night the PM said 42 teams from the military would be deployed across every region to help the effort and extra vaccine sites and mobile units will be set up across England.
Anyone aged over 18 who had their second vaccine at least three months ago can now book. Early data shows that getting a third booster dose prevents about 75% of people developing significant Covid symptoms from Omicron.
Growth slows
Economic growth ran out of steam in October, according to official figures. The 0.1% expansion leaves the economy about 0.5% smaller than it was at the outset of the pandemic.
Food and beverage service activities - mostly restaurants - fell back 7.5% after a strong summer. Construction shrank 1.8%, the largest fall since April 2020. That was largely down to problems with supply chains, though more recent data suggests that may be beginning to ease.
Both Omicron and the patchy performance of the economy has significantly cut the chances of a rate hike at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting this week. Pricing in markets and the economists polled by Bloomberg put the chance of a rise at about 40%. Both put a higher likelihood of the first hike arriving in February.
Retail investment
Total retail investment volumes are anticipated to reach £7.43 billion by the end of 2021, close to the 10 year average of £7.72 billion, despite a turbulent period impacted by lockdowns. That would make for the best year since 2017.
Exceptional demand for retail warehousing and foodstores is masking slower years in the in-town high street and shopping centre sectors, although both are improving from a very low base, writes Stephen Springham.
For the year ahead, expect retail warehousing to remain the sector of choice, foodstores to continue their bull run and the high street recovery to take hold in the South East.
Inflation
US inflation hit 6.8% in the year to November, the fastest rate of price increases in nearly 40 years. The data is another piece of evidence suggesting that global rising prices are far more embedded than officials had initially been thought.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted earlier this month that the "inflation is transitory" narrative would have to be retired. Yesterday Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said characterising inflation as transitory was probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.
Monetary policy makers are in a bind. Omicron has the potential to prevent consumers switching their spending from goods to services and may prolong disruption to global supply chains, creating further upwards pressure on prices. The Group of Seven finance ministers will convene virtually today in an attempt to work out how to proceed.
The four day week
Schools and the public sector in the UAE will move to a four-and-a-half day work week in January. The move made headlines globally and illustrates the degree to which interest in the proposition is taking hold.
Last month UK-based Atom Bank said it would move to a four day work week without cutting pay and the Scottish Government has plans to introduce a trial. This is a good round up of the various global trials and studies.
It's still a novel idea but there is some momentum behind it. This morning's Telegraph reports on trade unions applying pressure at Lloyds Bank. Accord and Unite want the lender to become by far the biggest employer yet to introduce a four-day working week without cutting salaries
It would be easy to write this off but the unions are playing the long game. Ged Nichols, Accord's General Secretary, said: "We're trying to start the conversation on this, and it's something we'd hope to deliver in stages over a number of years rather than a one-off."
In other news...
In a new Rural Market Update, Andrew Shirley tackles green heating.
Faisal Durrani on the changing Saudi retail landscape.
Plus, final call to take part in our UK Residential Property Survey and win yourself a fabulous case of Louis Roederer champagne to see 2022 in with style. The survey takes minutes to complete, so share your thoughts on the property market today.
Elsewhere - gender balance flips in boardrooms (Times), one in three business owners plan to lay off staff (Times), airlines call for support after Omicron dents recovery hopes (FT), and finally, Beijing to moderate monetary policy to support growth (FT).