Monday property news update

Brexit: what happens next?

As Britain and the EU prepare to rescue trade talks ahead of another week of negotiations - and amid reports this morning that the PM Boris Johnson may be about to give some ground - we check back in with Toscafund chief economist Savvas Savouri on what he thinks is the most likely path forward.

Mr Savouri tells Anna Ward and Tom Bill he's convinced we’re weeks away from an agreement that enables the UK to exit the EU on friendly terms and we'll soon see the pound move sharply higher against the euro. It's well worth hearing the full conversation on the latest Intelligence Talks podcast, which you can find on Apple, Spotify, or Acast.

International buyers in London

While the lifting of travel restrictions is the primary concern for many international buyers, others are capitalising on the travel hiatus and looking beyond the political uncertainty of the next few months, writes Tom Bill in a new UK Property Market Outlook.

In fact, for the first time on record, the largest group of overseas buyers in prime central London during the first nine months of the year was from France, according to Knight Frank data. UK buyers accounted for 59% of deals over the period compared to 47% last year. 

It's worth noting that, between the period before the EU referendum and the middle of last week, Euro-denominated buyers in PCL benefited from an effective discount (currency plus house price movement) of 30%.

Going long London offices

The head of Omers, one of Canada’s largest pension funds, tells the FT that London’s commercial property market still ranks as one of the most attractive in the world. He expects demand for office space to shrink by about 10% over the long term and that interest in higher quality work spaces will increase. 

That follows a Friday report from Bloomberg revealing a slew of large companies are in the process of undertaking big office moves that show demand for the biggest and best buildings is recovering from lockdown lows. 

China's recovery gathers pace

China’s economy expanded 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter as it continues its remarkable recovery from the pandemic. 

The recovery has been underpinned by a state-backed industrial boom, which enabled industrial output to grow 6.9% in September after a 5.6% rise in August. There are now signs the recovery is broadening, and retail sales grew 3.3% in September from a year earlier, speeding up from a modest 0.5% rise in August.

Vaccine news

The Sunday Times yesterday reported the NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas.

According to the report, Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer, told MPs last week that stage three trials of the vaccine created at Oxford University and being manufactured by AstraZeneca mean a mass rollout is on the horizon as early as December. 

In other news...

Andrew Shirley on the farming sector's uncertain future; Stephen Springham on the state of UK retail in the run up to Christmas; John Lewis is to build rental homes at 20 of its UK sites; BOE boss says its best to act aggressively; lessons on negative rates to be found overseas; stores close at record rate as shoppers change their habits; the drop in London's finance job vacancies; and finally, the UK's housing market booms through October.