A distant future?

Where there are multiple levels of government we have chosen to focus on those where the main city/cities are, for example in the US we look at measures in New York State and California and in Australia we look at New South Wales (NSW), see Table 1 below.

With the UK entering day 17 of nation-wide lockdown many cast an eye to China, who was first hit by Covid-19, to gauge how long this, and other countries’, lockdowns may last and how they will be eased. In Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, the lockdown was officially lifted after 76 days, with some measures loosened after 59 days – this comes 55 and 33 days, respectively, after the peak of new cases. For other cities in the Hubei region the lockdown was lifted after 62 days, with some restrictions loosened after 50 days. 

Austria, Denmark and The Czech Republic are the first European countries to indicate the road out of lockdown. Austria announced that from 14 April small shops and some others will open and as of 1 May, ‘slightly higher risk’ businesses, including hair salons, will be allowed to open with the possibility of restaurants and cafes to start operating again in mid-May. This would indicate the length of strictest measures to be 29 days. 

Denmark will open kindergartens and primary schools on April 15 and look to gradually reopen offices, 21 days after the strictest measures, with the caveat that any signs of an uptick in the number of cases would be followed by an immediate resumption of restrictions. Gatherings bigger than 10 people are still banned, and restaurants, bars and cafes will remain closed. The Czech Republic announced that shops selling some non-essential goods would be able to reopen from 9th April, 23 days after national lockdown.

The reintroduction or first imposition of stringent measures has been brought into the spotlight recently by Hong Kong and Singapore. Both of these economies, until recently avoided closing non-essential business, although Hong Kong previously had 32 days of civil servants, and most private companies, working from home. However, as daily new cases has risen in recent weeks they have both implemented stricter measures on 3 April and 7 April respectively, for an initial period of two weeks. 

In terms of residential markets many are still open for business, with the caveat that viewings and appraisals limitations are slowing transactions, see Table 2 below. This is with the exception of European countries, where notaries have shut or only operate for emergencies over the lockdowns, therefore limiting residential transactions. Some countries have placed restrictions on moving home, for example in Dubai a permit is required. We continue to monitor economic activity indicators as well as residential markets, including most recently Vienna, the US, Singapore and Australia.

Table 1: Timeline of key measures in 18 economies

Table 2: Residential real estate markets