The Monday note - 4 June 2018

• The FTSE 100 index fell by 15 points last week to close on Friday at 7,707.5, having recovered most of the losses that followed the announcement of US tariffs. The ten year Gilt yield stood at 1.27%. 
• US non-farm payrolls jumped by 223,000 in May, while unemployment fell to its lowest level since April 2000. The dollar rose on the news. 
• Shares in General Motors jumped by 13% on Thursday after Softbank, the Japanese technology investor, bought a US$2.25 bn stake in the carmaker’s autonomous vehicle unit, Cruise. 
• The UK’s manufacturing PMI index increased from 53.9 in April to 54.4 in May – a figure of over 50 suggests growth. City analysts had expected a reading of 53.5 for May. 

Chief Economist comments: 

In Q1 2018, the UK economy came close to grinding to a halt. However, evidence is mounting of a recovery in Q2, as the disruption brought by snow in March gave way to better weather. The retail spending figures rebounded in April, and manufacturing surprised on the upside in May. Much will depend on the statistics for June, but if momentum continues to build an August rise in interest rates could be ahead.