ECONOMICS

Winter is coming as natural gas prices triple

Discover key economic and financial metrics, and what to look out for in the week ahead including natural gas price rises, looser fiscal policies expected in Germany and tightening monetary policy.
Written By:
William Matthews, Knight Frank
1 minute to read
Categories: service Consultancy Topic Data Economics Forecast World Regions UK

Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. Download the dashboard for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.  

In this edition:

  • After 16 years, Angela Merkel’s term in office will come to an end when Germany goes to the polls on Sunday 26th September. The current expectation of a more left leaning government could mean higher spending and overall looser fiscal policies, which may put upward pressure on Bund yields.
  • Wholesale gas prices have risen 250% since January. With UK inflation already at its highest level since March 2012 at 3.2% in August, the trajectory of energy markets could cause wider inflation measures to rise further as winter approaches.
  • Central bank tightening – from “when?”, to “how much?”. In a week when five major central banks will set interest rates, including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE), the narrative is shifting from when to tighten monetary policy to how much. Consensus forecasts see UK base rates only rising to 0.25% by Q4 2022, but recent strong employment data and higher than expected inflation figures are likely to begin to gradually change this stance.

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