Price Expectation Gap Between Buyers and Sellers Risks Widening
Rising supply and mortgage rates may increase downwards pressure on asking prices.
2 minutes to read
If you are currently selling a property, an over-ambitious asking price could be a bigger hurdle than normal.
It’s a statement that sellers will understandably question. Isn’t the UK housing market turning a corner after last year’s slump? Haven’t house prices returned to growth?
Both are true, but the recovery is happening in slow-motion.
One reason is rising mortgage rates, as we explored here. Higher rates mean trimmed budgets, which will inevitably increase friction around prices.
Financial markets expect between two and three cuts of 0.25% to the bank rate this year versus five in January, as stubborn wage growth gives the Bank of England an inflation headache. That has pushed up mortgage rates.
What will the Bank do when it meets this week and again on 9 May?
Well, there was some encouraging news last week for those hoping for a spring cut. Demand for staff is falling, job vacancies in England hit their lowest level in three years, and the unemployment rate ticked up unexpectedly.
US bank Morgan Stanley wrote: “The chances of a Q2 rate cut look severely underpriced to us.” It expects a cut in May.
Opinions vary wildly about how may cuts are coming this year though, which doesn’t help buyers and sellers.
And overall, it’s difficult to get too excited about the prospects for a cut in the near-term considering that two members of Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise rates last month.
Last week’s jobs figures caused a brief dip in the five-year swap rate, the instrument that lenders use to price mortgages of the same length. But by Friday afternoon it was trading above 4.2%, higher than seven days earlier. The employment data had been a positive sign but not a very big one.
The second reason that asking prices could be squeezed is that supply is rising more quickly than demand.
Data from RICS last week showed that the latest net balance reading for new sales instructions was the highest since October 2020 at 21% - see chart.
This tallies with Knight Frank data, which shows the number of new prospective buyers flat or falling compared to the five-year average in the first two months of the year. At the same time, market appraisals and sales instructions are up.
No doubt pent-up vendor demand from 2023 is being released as inflation calms down and spring approaches. The effect may also be temporary as renewed confidence from January fades, but the result is more downwards pressure on asking prices.
A third reason that may increasingly unsettle buyers is political uncertainty.
We are not at the point of wondering if the government will survive until the end of the week yet, but rifts inside the Tory party are widening.
Are those rifts deep and ideological to the point that some MPs would attempt to oust the Prime Minister despite how chaotic that would look months before a general election? The answer has to be yes.