European Leading Indicators | Further ECB rate cuts are predicted
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Here we look at the European leading indicators in the world of economics.
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Key insights:
Economists' predictions on the extent of ECB rate cuts vary
Further European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy easing is expected, but forecasts for the pace and extent of future rate cuts vary, shaped by inflation dynamics, economic growth, and global policy trends. Inflation in the Eurozone surprised to the upside in October, and potential protectionist measures in the US could lead to a slower-than-anticipated unwinding of rates. Capital Economics currently projects a lower bound of 1.5% for the ECB deposit rate by mid-2025.
Sentiment in European real estate shows some optimism
Over 80% of respondents in PwC’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe survey expect business confidence and profitability to remain stable or improve in 2025, with nearly half anticipating growth in both areas. However, geopolitical risks and political stability remain key concerns.
Several European countries see growth in CRE investment
According to MSCI Real Capital Analytics, total CRE investment in Europe (excl. UK) reached €26.8bn in Q3, broadly in line with the results of the same period last year. Several European markets experienced year-on-year growth, with Poland, Italy, Austria, and Sweden showing some of the most significant increases.
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