Global house prices display surprising resilience in Q2
Global housing markets wrongfooted us this quarter with housing markets displaying relative resilience.
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The overall index is still rising at 10% per annum, down only marginally from 10.9% last quarter.
Plus, 51 of the 56 countries and territories tracked continue to register an increase in house prices on an annual basis despite the clouds, or rather storms, on the economic horizon.
Even when we look at the data over the last three months that figure only drops to 49 of the 56 markets.
Perhaps we’re premature with our doom mongering and the inflection point will be next quarter.
As you would expect in real terms markets are feeling the pinch. When taking inflation into account, house prices in real terms are averaging just 1.6% growth in the year to Q2 2022, down from 6.2% a year earlier.
Asia Pacific property resilience
Asia Pacific, although the global picture in nominal terms is one of relative resilience, there are signs Asia Pacific is ahead of the curve when it comes to the slowdown. Of the seven markets that saw prices decline between March and June 2022, six are in the Asia Pacific region: Hong Kong, South Korea, Chinese mainland, Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand.
New Zealand has seen the biggest decline amongst global house prices, with prices down 3% on a 3-month basis. New responsible lending laws and seven rate rises since October 2021 have shifted buyer sentiment, from a fear of missing out to a fear of overpaying.
European property performing
Europe Central and Eastern European countries are still performing strongly in relation to global house prices, despite the proximity of the Ukraine crisis. Slovakia (26%), Czech Republic (24%), Estonia (21%), Hungary (20%), Latvia (17%) and Slovenia (17%) all sit within the top ten this quarter.
And elsewhere….
Turkey’s triple-digit annual growth of 161% can largely be ignored with inflation at a 24-year high of almost 80% and with interest rates heading south this figure may yet increase.
The US housing market is resilient in sixth place with 21% annual growth, but a slowdown is on the cards. Higher mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in July, which are now down by 26% from their peak in January.