Monday property news update - 22nd March
Vaccine hesitancy, a year since lockdown and measuring the benefits of feel good investing
4 minutes to read
The growing threat of vaccine hesitancy
EU leaders will hold a virtual summit on Thursday to decide whether to go ahead with a threat to block exports of vaccine supplies to Britain.
While this will cause a lot of noise, the short-term implications for the UK appear to be limited. In a statement to the Times, the government said that an EU export ban could delay Britain’s target of inoculating all adults by the end of July but would not affect the road map for lifting restrictions because it would affect only the May and June supplies, when all over-50s will have been protected.
The row does however add uncertainty to the prospects for international travel, which has knock-on effects for domestic property markets reliant on international buyers and holiday home markets. New YouGov polling published this morning shows that confidence in the Astra jab has taken a big hit in France, Germany, Spain and Italy, which will slow the roll out further. Meanwhile, the UK is on the cusp of adding France to the quarantine list.
Poor take-up in Asia
This issue is not limited to Europe. Hong Kong expanded its vaccination campaign to young adults aged 30+ after the vast majority of people in its priority groups shied away from taking a shot.
As of last week, just 198,100 people had received their first dose, accounting for just 5.4% of eligible groups. India and China have also had slow starts.
We’ll be exploring this further with Victoria Garrett, Head of Residential, Asia Pacific as part of the Wealth Report webinar series. Register now to watch live tomorrow at 9am GMT or on demand.
The year that was
Tomorrow is the anniversary of the start of the UK’s first lockdown. Tom Bill this morning discuses ten remarkable statistics to tell the story of the year that followed.
Of course, one of the biggest themes of the year was the 'escape to the country' trend, which shaped demand throughout the year but has waned to some extent following its high-point last summer. The percentage of London-based buyers searching for a property in the capital hit 39% July 2020. The equivalent figure was 70% a year earlier.
One stat says a lot about what's likely to take place during the months ahead: there are now almost 13 new prospective buyers for every new sale instruction. This ratio, which shows the strength of demand versus supply, stands at the second highest it has been in the last five years and demonstrates why there has been upwards pressure on prices in the early months of this year.
The retail fall-out
Stephen Springham marks the anniversary of lockdown by quantifying the scale of the retail fall-out.
Some 17,500+ chain retail stores closed in 2020, the biggest decline in more than a decade. Store numbers declined by -4.5%, or about 1 store in every 20. There are still signs of life, however, and closures were partially offset by 7,665 new openings.
The government continues to mull an online sales tax aimed at levelling the playing field between high street and online retailers. The chancellor will now wait until the autumn before deciding how to proceed, according to a report in the FT over the weekend. Stephen has his doubts.
Measuring the benefits of feel-good investing
Accurately measuring the economic benefits of environmentally or socially beneficial investments remains one of the ESG movement's great challenges. We talked on Wednesday about the continued uncertainty in the UK build-to-rent sector as to whether occupancy improves or tenants will pay a premium for green buildings.
It's an important question: regulators are driving change via the threat of regulatory obsolescence, but proof of outsized returns could accelerate that process further.
Researchers at MIT have conducted an interesting study as to whether 'Healthy Buildings' across ten cities in the US command rental premiums. The study, based on a World Health Organization definition of a healthy building and a raft of public databases, finds that healthy building effective rents transact between 4.4% and 7.7% more per square foot than their nearby non-certified and non-registered peers.
Analysts say the finding is independent of all other factors, such as LEED certification, building age, renovation, lease duration, and submarket.
In other news...
Andrew Shirley on the battle for the UK’s rural land, and Stephen Beard on how investors are capitalising on our life online.
Plus, the housing minister flies the flag for ‘resilient’ BTR, 1m buildings will need modernising under Government’s net-zero strategy, Britain and EU close to agreeing forum for financial services, British housing is expensive and its supply must increase, and finally, business confidence at highest for three years.
Photo by Gary Butterfield on Unsplash