Your Monday Update - 17th August
From the City to the Country
3 minutes to read
From the city to the country
The impulse to escape to the country has been a well-documented feature of the Covid-19 pandemic - see this morning‘s papers for more. In this morning's Residential Market Outlook, Tom Bill reveals there are now as many London-based buyers looking in the capital as in the south-east of the country. Before the crisis, London-based buyers seeking homes in the capital would outweigh those looking in the south east by about three to one.
This is all part of a wider surge, rather than a migration out of London. The number of new prospective buyers registering in the capital in the week ending 8 August was the sixth highest figure in more than 20 years. See the blog for more on what home buyers are looking for, plus confirmation of the best value London residential locations for cycle commutes.
The virus: taking stock the global picture
Central and South America has become the primary Covid-19 hotspot, with countries from the region taking six of the top 10 positions for per capita daily cases, according to the WHO/Johns Hopkins. India is reporting more than 62,000 new cases per day, the most globally.
Europe does not have any countries in the top 10 in terms of total or per capita daily cases, though a number of countries (including the UK) are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day.
First in, first out
China could become the only major economy to expand this year as it undergoes an industry-powered rebound. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now forecast growth of 2.0%. Italy's economy is also beginning to surprise on the upside after month-on-month industrial output climbed 8.2% in June, outperforming the 5.1% rise predicted by a poll of economists conducted by Reuters.
In a new Intelligence Talks podcast we turn to the UK. KPMG UK chief economist Yael Selfin joins Tom Bill to delve into what's really happening to the economy, plus the race for a vaccine and how all of this is driving the UK residential market. We also hear from Yael on unemployment projections, vaccine scenarios and stamp duty. Listen on Apple, Spotify or Acast.
London retail – for once the laggard
Historically, central London retail has almost always outperformed, and the Global Financial Crisis barely registered in the West End. Such is the irregularity of Covid-19 that it has not only undermined these dynamics, but actually turned them on their head.
In a new note, Stephen Springham outlines the perfect storm of absent city workers and tourists faced by retailers, and tries to answer when both the retail and hospitality markets are likely to recover.
Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research this morning estimates that shops, pubs and restaurants in London miss out on £600 million of sales each month as people stay at home because of the pandemic. However, it expects that figure to drop to £178 million this month, with the government's Eat Out to Help Out partially responsible.
Agri-Africa, plus cheese and sugar spats
Two years ago we published Knight Frank’s Agri-Africa report, our first detailed report looking at agricultural investment opportunities across the continent. During this period, various events have continued to shape the agricultural landscape in Africa and we have now published a series of online articles tracking these themes. The pieces cover everything from the impact of Covid-19 on the sector and economic diversification to pan-Africa economic and trade integration and the challenges faced by entrepreneurs.
For rural news closer to home, Andrew Shirley reveals disagreements over cheese and sugar that highlight the government’s seemingly contradictory attitude towards food and farming, plus we hear from rural businesses who hope that proposed planning reforms won’t leave them out in the cold.
In other news...
After Covid-19, will business flock to the suburbs; slow and steady wins the race for a Covid-19 vaccine; Japan's economy shrinks at record pace; Thailand’s economy contracted the most in more than two decades.