The future face of food and farming in the UK

By the time you read this the 30 June deadline for requesting an extension to the UK’s transition period from the EU will have passed or just be on the verge of expiring.

The chances are that, despite vociferous lobbying from many quarters including the agricultural industry, Boris Johnson, who staked so much political capital on delivering Brexit, will have authorised no such request and the transition period will end as planned on 31 December.

Those calling for an extension argue that the disruption caused by Covid-19, including the Prime Minister’s own apparent near-death experience and the illness of key negotiators, has made it impossible to strike a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU in time.

It’s not a sentiment shared by most of the respondents to our latest Rural Sentiment Survey. Over 55% say no to an extension. Most, even those who voted remain, just want to get on with things, while others worry about getting drawn into the EU’s fiscal problems.

Those close to the negotiations say a deal is still not impossible within the current timetable, but concede it is looking increasingly less likely, given the UK and EU are still some way apart on fisheries policy and the concept of a post-Brexit ‘level playing field’ in terms of regulation and state aid. So far apart, some would argue, that a delay would make no difference anyway.

No agreement means we will trade with the EU under WTO terms with the immediate introduction of tariffs on most of the goods we export. This would hurt livestock producers the hardest and would lead to the more marginal being forced out of business, according to one economist I spoke to.

Although another I quizzed doesn’t rule out one more face-saving fudge for both parties that would see some kind of memorandum on trade even if a full FTA isn’t in place.

Meanwhile, Trade Minister Liz Truss seems more focused on delivering a headline-grabbing FTA with the US. This  is another area of concern for the farming sector, heightened somewhat since the government kicked out an amendment to the Agricultural Bill that insisted food imports to the UK meet the same standards that farmers here have to adhere to.

These standards are a huge bone of contention to US negotiators who see our food sector as a big  opportunity.  From the UK’s perspective, however, improved access to America’s financial services is seen as the big prize. Farmers fear it is they who will be sacrificed in order to claim it.

In the end the final decision may come down to the British public as it does its weekly shop. Cheaper imports or UK standards. It will be up to the farming industry and its lobbyists to make the case.