Knight Frank Daily Update Monday 15th June
Non-essential shops reopen, flights resume and a new record for offers accepted outside the capital
2 minutes to read
Good morning,
Need to know
After 83 days of coronavirus lockdown, non-essential stores in England reopen their doors today.
Officials are reviewing the two-metre social distancing rule ahead of the next stage of lockdown easing planned for the 4th of July, when bars, restaurants and hairdressers could reopen.
European countries will ease some border controls today, though as of yet there appears to be little in the way of a uniformed approach.
To coincide, Easyjet will resume flights for the first time in almost three months.
Following news the economy shrank 20% in April, economists at EY Item Club said Britain’s economy will shrink by 8 per cent this year, but it should rebound faster than initially expected.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has doubled down on its forecast of a V-shaped global recovery. The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, economists at the company said yesterday.
US futures dipped along with Asian shares overnight as investors weighed the possibility of a second wave of the virus in some locations. More than 20 US states are seeing an uptick in cases.
The property market
Knight Frank data suggests traction is returning to UK property markets after restrictions were lifted a little over a month ago.
Analysis this morning from Tom Bill and Chris Druce reveals the number of offers accepted on residential transactions outside London in the week to the 6th of June was the highest on record, and up 52% compared to the five-year average, as vendors agreed deals against a backdrop of narrowing price discounts and pent-up demand.
The mismatch between historic and real-time data is going to test property markets over the coming months. Tom Bill updates our residential market outlook, and probes how buyers and sellers might react to conflicting signals during the summer.
A new episode of the Knight Frank Intelligence Talks podcast explores the options for Stamp Duty reform. Anna Ward and Tom Bill are in the virtual studio with Tony Travers, Visiting Professor in the London School of Economics Department of Government; and Sean Randall, Stamp Duty Partner at Blick Rothenberg.
With today's reopening of non-essential shops comes the tenth weekly analysis of retail market conditions from Stephen Springham. This week's note outlines what we can expect from the reopening, analysis of the British Retail Consortium's May sales figures, and more on the occupier fall-out as a result of the crisis.
If you have any questions, please contact me, or the team.