Unlocking the lockdown: Which APAC markets are likely to recover faster as lockdowns start to ease?
Markets across Asia-Pacific have started to ease their lockdown restrictions and, in some cases, have exited lockdown completely over the past couple weeks; they are easing at varying degrees and certain markets will see a quicker return to normality than others.
2 minutes to read
In this commentary, we look at which Asia-Pacific markets (ex. China) are likely to witness a quicker recovery in the race back to normality.
To do this, we analysed Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility reports* which track mobility and movements, via mobile location data, at key locations within a country – 1: Retail and Recreational Areas, 2: Transit Areas, and 3: Workplaces.
For example, looking at Retail and Recreation Areas for New Zealand, at the end of March, Google’s data showed a -90.3% decline compared to baseline. However, by the end of May, that difference compared to baseline has shrunk to -21.4%; a 69-percentage point improvement which can be largely attributed to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions by its government.
By comparing the duration and frequency of mobility across these three categories over the March to May period, we are able to glean not only the speed at which economic activity has returned, but also to a certain extent the populations’ confidence with the COVID-19 situation within their respective markets; regardless of actual government directives.
Who is leading the road to recovery?
Within the Asia-Pacific region, it is clear that New Zealand would lead given how well it has handled its COVID-19 outbreak; this is further cemented by the fact that the country lifted all of its domestic restrictions on 9 June.
The next three likely to emerge (in no particular order) are Malaysia, India and the Philippines which have seen the largest improvement in mobility across most of the categories tracked. These three markets have consistently ranked top among most of the location categories across the 10 countries we analysed, with India and Malaysia having seen a significant improvement in activity, down -60 to -55% from their baselines in March, to -25 to -20% at the end of May. Going forward, with these two markets having eased their restrictions further in the past week, we are expecting their activity data to normalise faster over the coming months which should lead to a faster rate of economic recovery compared to their regional peers.
Notes on methodology
*Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report analyses the how visits and time spent at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020