Your daily market update from Knight Frank Research Monday 20th April

Economic headlines,

Markets were mixed and the dollar strengthened overnight, as investors weighed the slowing spread of the virus against the expectation of suppressed earnings reports this week. 

The coronavirus death toll rose in Britain by 596 to 16,060 yesterday, the lowest daily figure for a fortnight. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state may be past the high point, and fewer daily deaths were reported in Italy and Spain. New Zealand said it would relax lockdown restrictions in a week. Germany is set to allow smaller shops to reopen today.

Oxford University researchers are planning to begin human trials of a vaccine this week and believe that they could have results showing whether it works as early as September.

Democratic leaders and the White House are close to agreeing up to $450 billion for a new loan program aimed at helping small businesses stay afloat.

Property market headlines,

The housing market has been utterly transformed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Alongside more than half a million lost sales in 2020, Knight Frank today forecasts a loss of £7.9 billion in DIY and renovation spend, together with a fall of £395m in spend on removals companies. We have more on the wider economic impact, and share our five point plan for the government to help offset these losses, including a stamp duty holiday and an extension of Help to Buy.

This morning we also publish our detailed weekly outlook for prices, transactions, rents, development activity and mortgage markets.

Flora Harley's analysis of the latest real-time economic data reveals Madrid, Milan and Paris have seen drops in retail and recreational activity of between 87% and 94% compared to pre-crisis levels. Her post also confirms that the decline in activity is beginning to moderate in Vienna and Prague.

Andrew Shirley gives this detailed breakdown of the effects of Covid-19 on farming and rural UK markets, including commodity prices and labour shortages.

Meanwhile, Rightmove has paused its monthly house price index due to a lack of data. The portal said visits to its site fell 40% when restrictions on movement were announced and have since started to recover. The total number of homes for sale on the site has fallen just 2.6% since the onset of the lockdown. 

If you have any questions, please contact me, or the team.