Global City Economic Watch

In this week’s edition we take a look at morning rush hour congestion across 15 global cities, using the Traffic Index from TomTom International BV*, as well as the change in a population’s mobility, compared to usual, in 12 locations using Citymapper’s Mobility Index**.

The TomTom Traffic Index indicates a marked slowdown in activity for cities where restrictions on movement remain tight, or have recently been increased.

In Paris for example, where a strict policy was introduced on March 17^th, morning traffic congestion was reported as only 5% on average last week, compared to a reading of 72% for the average week in 2019. However, the largest change is evident in New York, with an average congestion of just 4% last week, compared to 54% average in 2019.

The index shows that in cities where social distancing restrictions have been eased or removed, most notably in Beijing and Shanghai, there has been almost a return to normality. After months of tight rules, Shanghai’s weekly average stood at 55% last week, with Beijing at 61%, both close to their 2019 averages of 59% and 64% respectively. This ties in with the growing level of activity as we noted in Nicholas Holt’s blog last week.

The Citymapper Mobility Index presents a similar story showing the gradual fall of the proportion of the population moving around each city, compared to usual, as stricter measures came into play.

As more stringent restrictions were put in place this week in London and Sydney we have seen mobility levels drop, Sydney’s has fallen from 56% in the week ending 22^nd March to 18% on the 26^th March. In London mobility dropped from over 80% to around 10% over the same period.

In locations where social distancing is still advised, yet stricter measure are not in place, most notably in Singapore, there still remains mobility – over 50% of usual levels. Others, such as Hong Kong and Seoul have lower levels of mobility but still much higher than their European and North American counterparts.

We will continue to monitor these and other measures, such as box office revenues, on a frequent basis. These will offer real-time indication as to how quickly society and consumer patterns return to pre-pandemic levels and will serve as a guide on the time that it will take for economic recovery.

Notes on methodology

*The congestion level looks at how much longer a trip would take compared to baseline, e.g. a level of 53% means that a 30-minute trip will take 53% more time than it would during baseline uncongested conditions.

**The Citymapper Mobility Index looks at the percentage of the population moving compared to a recent typical usage period, they do this by comparing trips planned in the Citymapper app to a recent typical usage period as trips planned are correlated to trips taken.