SERVICE

Leading Indicators - 31 August

Key economic and financial metrics, and what to look out for in the week ahead
1 minute to read
Categories: service Consultancy Topic Covid-19 Data Economics Forecast World Regions UK

In this edition:

  • UK GDP growth consensus edges up to 5.6% for 2022. This positive sentiment was reinforced today by the latest Lloyds Bank monitor of business confidence, which is running at a four-year high. Confidence improved in nine of the twelve UK regions and nations, with the North West seeing the largest increase.
  • The US taper-tantrum averted, for now. The tone of last week’s Jackson Hole meeting of US central bankers suggests the general pace of US monetary tightening will remain moderate. Treasuries rallied in response, and the S&P500 briefly reached a record high. The outlook for interest rate hikes remains more distant, with the recent inflationary spike not seen as a direct catalyst for action.
  • Eurozone inflation reaches a 10-year high of 3.0%. As in the US, the ECB sees the current inflationary surge as transitory. However, pressure is building to consider whether monetary stimulus should be reduced and the ECB’s governing council will meet next week to discuss the timing of such moves.

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