Leading Indicators | Interest rates, Trump's tariffs, and sterling resilience
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Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics.
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BoE and Fed resume easing cycle
Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) resumed their easing cycle, each cutting interest rates by -25bps. The BoE reduced its base rate to 4.75%, while the Fed set a target range of 4.50–4.75%. The latest BoE forecasts imply rates falling faster than current market pricing, which should help to unlock activity ahead.
The potential impact of new US tariffs on imported goods
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed implementing a 10–20% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% or higher tariff on imports from China. If enacted, these tariffs would likely raise input costs across numerous industrial sectors, with the motor vehicle industry projected to see price increases of up to 3.7%.
Sterling remains resilient
Following the US election and ongoing political instability in Germany, the British pound is demonstrating its resilience as a safe-haven currency. Currently, sterling is trading at $1.29 against the dollar. Meanwhile, sterling continues to trade at its highest level against the euro since August 2022, currently at €1.21.
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