Monday property news update
New strains, the return of the pound and renters seek to eliminate the commute
3 minutes to read
Tracking the roll-out
The government's latest Covid-19 data covering fatalities, infections and vaccinations continues the trends we discussed on Friday, with positive tests in the last seven days down 22%, patients being admitted to hospital down a little over 6% and the growth rate in fatalities falling back to 10% from 15% a week earlier.
The data confirms the R rate is somewhere between 0.8 and the crucial threshold of 1. Finally with 491,970 people receiving their first coronavirus vaccinations on Saturday alone, the government is on track to hit its target to vaccinate the 14.6 million most vulnerable people by Feburary 15th.
New strains
Amid reports that all arrivals into UK airports and ports may be escorted to designated Covid-19 hotels to quarantine for ten days in order to combat emerging new strains, it is becoming increasingly clear that the economic and public health implications of these new strains will dominate the latter phase of the crisis, particularly in Europe.
Government scientists believe the strain that emerged in south east England adds between 0.4 and 0.7 points to the R number and has since been identified in 33 other countries. Market watchers including the hedge fund Element suggest growth prospects across the Eurozone are likely to come under significant pressure as countries are forced to mirror the restrictions currently prevailing in the UK.
We'll get more details on how all this impacts the outlook for the eurozone economy following the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday.
Rental trends
While some people have gravitated away from central London during the pandemic, the strength of activity in Canary Wharf’s residential lettings market shows there is also movement in the opposite direction.
Falling rents in the capital has sparked a wave of upsizing as more people work from home. However, in Canary Wharf it has brought some closer to the office, demonstrating how the “escape to the country” trend is not the only way Covid-19 is changing behaviour, writes Tom Bill.
The vast majority of tenants in Canary Wharf are single or couples with no children and work in a diverse range of sectors dominated by finance, for whom it is clear the appeal of walking to work has been heightened by the pandemic.
The rise of sterling
With the Brexit deal agreed and Britain's vaccination programme vastly outperforming that of all major economies, the pound last week hit an eight-month high against the euro and a 32-month high against the dollar.
Asset manager Aberdeen Standard Investments tells Bloomberg this is the beginning of a longer trend that will see the pound climb about 20% against the euro over the next few years, back to levels not seen since the 2016 vote to leave the EU.
Significant swings in currencies has been a feature of the pandemic, however the outlook for sterling hints at a closing window of dominance for overseas buyers of UK property, particularly those buying in dollars or dollar-pegged currencies, a theme Flora Harley visited during the summer.
In other news...
Stephen Springham has his say on the full year retail sales figures for 2020 and Andrew Shirley has a round up of the latest news in rural markets.
Plus, Chicago residents push up property prices in search of space, Vodafone's take on the future of the office, Bank of England told to get out of oil and gas bonds, UK extends councils' lockdown powers until 17th July, the world’s economic recovery delayed by slow vaccine rollouts, and finally India’s economy shows signs of recovery as virus cases decline.