Midweek property news update
The scientific cavalry, the logistics headache and the resilience of UK housebuilding
3 minutes to read
The scientific cavalry
Economists have upgraded Britain's growth forecasts after interim trial data showed the experimental vaccine developed by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech was 90% effective. UK GDP may return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as the middle of next year as life gets back to normal faster than many had predicted, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Oil rose to its highest level in more than two months as investors bet on the return of demand. Meanwhile, health secretary Matt Hancock declared that a million people a week could be vaccinated under current NHS plans. That would mean all over-65s may get the jab by Easter.
The news comes as a record 314,000 workers were made redundant in the three months to September, 181,000 more than in the second quarter. That puts the unemployment rate at 4.8%, the highest rate since the three months to November 2016.
The logistics headache
The vaccine poses unique challenges for global logistics. It must be shipped and centrally stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius, putting it out of reach for the moment of many low income countries which lack the necessary refrigeration equipment.
It's well worth revisiting this timely October piece from our own Justin Eng, who unpicks the distribution challenges in the region, from the cold chain network, to storage and successful deployment.
The vast majority of doses available in the next year have already been bought by the US, the EU and Japan, according to this useful explainer from the FT.
Europe's Lockdown 2.0
The new wave of pandemic restrictions being implemented across Europe look set to deliver a smaller blow to economies than those enforced during the Spring, according to the latest high frequency indicators spanning truck mileage, trips to entertainment venues and offices, and restaurant bookings.
Kate Everett-Allen has a roundup of the current rules and timelines for the respective lockdowns across major European countries. Most housing markets can still function, viewings are permissible, properties can transact, and people can move house.
The resilience of UK housebuilding
As UK housebuilders reinstate dividend payments and amid reports of shortages of doors and appliances for new homes, Anna Ward checks in on the UK land market.
Land deals picked up in the third quarter, with housebuilders returning to the market to replenish their sales pipelines after many withdrew in Q2, led by private London developers and well-funded, opportunistic buyers.
Average land values in prime central London rose 4.7% during Q3, meaning the index has returned to Q1 levels. Demand for homes outside of the capital has also returned and, accordingly urban brownfield land values rose 3.8% during Q3, while greenfield values remained stable, ticking up 0.3% on the quarter.
In other news...
As part of Talk Money Week 2020, Knight Frank Finance invites you to its update on the UK mortgage market at 10:30 GMT today.
Plus, DHL, FedEx and UPS are ready to save the world, Nissan's prospects brighten as China rebounds, Russian property firms ride Kremlin-fuelled housing boom.